Future

Dutch build more dunes against rising seas (PhysOrg)

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 19:55:07 -0800

On the beach at Monster, bulldozers painstakingly turn sand dredged from the bottom of the North Sea bed into dunes in an ambitious effort to safeguard the Netherlands from flooding. … Read more

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US newspaper ad revenue down nearly 28 percent (PhysOrg)

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 19:56:20 -0800

US newspaper advertising revenue fell by nearly 28 percent in the third quarter, continuing a slide which has led to layoffs, bankruptcies and the closure of several dailies. … Read more

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Twitter’s Identity Crisis (Yahoo!)

Sat, 21 Nov 2009 08:10:36 -0800

Few things in the Web 2.0 world are more frustrating than attempting to justify Twitter to a nonbeliever. … Read more

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Researcher’s labour of love leads to breakthrough in treating MS (Globe & Mail)

Sat, 21 Nov 2009 09:48:26 -0800

New way of thinking about debilitating disease has yielded stunning new treatments – but MS societies urge sufferers to be cautious before experimenting. … Read more

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Gene-makers form security coalition (Nature)

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 22:29:22 -0800

A new coalition of synthetic-biology companies, named the International Gene Synthesis Consortium (IGSC), has created its own set of guidelines that are intended to lessen the risk that gene-synthesis technology could be misused. … Read more

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Racing to the future (The Age)

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 22:31:05 -0800

Around the world, federal, state, provincial and municipal organisations are in a race to the future. In one way or another, they all face the same set of challenges: navigating in an environment of profound transformation, dealing with mounting complexity and volatility, meeting relentless competition, and manoeuvring in the context of sweeping global change. … Read more

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Just use less: Energy savings to be big part of nation’s energy future (PhysOrg)

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 22:32:15 -0800

Energy adviser and former Honeywell executive Maxine Savitz says there are enormous energy savings available through increased efficiency, as much as 30 percent by 2030. … Read more

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Battery Research Aims To Store Renewable Energy (PhysOrg)

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 22:34:48 -0800

The biggest chemical battery in the United States is located near Interstate 90 in the small town of Luverne, Minn. The 80 ton device — the size of two tractor-trailers stacked on top of each other — stores as much energy as about 3 million rechargeable AA batteries and can power about 3,000 houses for more than an hour when discharging at its maximum rate. … Read more

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Grant for wearable sensor project (The Engineer)

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 22:36:05 -0800

Researchers at GE Global Research have been awarded $2m (£1.2m) from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) — part of the US National Institutes of Health — to develop wearable radio-frequency-identification (RFID) sensors to alert people to the presence of chemicals in the air. … Read more

Scientists find molecular trigger that helps prevent aging and disease (PhysOrg)

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 22:36:27 -0800

Researchers at Mount Sinai School of Medicine set out to address a question that has been challenging scientists for years: How do dietary restriction—and the reverse, overconsumption — produce protective effects against aging and disease? … Read more

Intel: Chips in brains will control computers by 2020

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 20:05:15 -0800

By the year 2020, you won't need a keyboard and mouse to control your computer, say Intel Corp. researchers, who are close to gaining the ability to build brain sensing technology into a headset that culd be used to manipulate a computer, working with associates at Carnegie Mellon University and the University of Pittsburgh. Their next step is development of a tiny, far less cumbersome sensor that could be implanted inside the brain. (Source: http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9141180/Intel_Chips_in_brains_will_control_computers_by_2020)

Sounds During Sleep Aid Memory, Study Finds

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 20:27:11 -0800

Playing sound cues associated with a picture in a specific location while people slept helped them remember more of what they had learned before they fell sleep, to the point where memories of individual facts were enhanced, scientists at Northwestern University report in the journal Science. (Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/20/science/20sleep.html)

Google to Add Captions, Improving YouTube Videos

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 20:51:40 -0800

In the first major step toward making millions of videos on YouTube accessible to deaf and hearing-impaired people, Google unveiled new technologies on Thursday that will automatically bring text captions to many videos on the site. The technology will also open YouTube videos to a wider foreign market and make them more searchable, giving users the choice of using its automatic translation system to read the captions in 51 languages. (Source: http://news.cnet.com/8301-17939_109-10401170-2.html)

A Central Nervous System for Earth: HP's Ambitious Sensor Network

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 21:32:03 -0800

HP Labs has announced a project that aims to be a "Central Nervous System for the Earth" (CeNSE): a R&D program to build a planetwide sensing network, using billions of tiny accelerometers that detect motion and vibrations, and later, ones for light, temperature, barometric pressure, airflow and humidity. The nodes could be stuck to bridges and buildings to warn of structural strains or weather conditions and along roadsides to monitor traffic, weather and road conditions. Other uses include in everyday electronics, tracking hospital equipment, sniffing out pesticides and pathogens in food, and ultimately even "recognize" the person using them and adapt. HP Labs' ultimate aim is to have a worldwide network of a trillion of these CeNSE sensors. (Source: http://www.nytimes.com/external/readwriteweb/2009/11/18/18readwriteweb-a-central-nervous-system-for-earth-hps-ambi-15544.html)

On Your Last Nerve: Researchers Advance Understanding of Stem Cells

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 21:55:02 -0800

North Carolina State University researchers have identified a gene, FoxJ1, that tells embryonic stem cells in the brain when to stop producing neurons. The research could lead to new treatments to replace damaged or diseased brain tissue. (Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091117102034.htm)

The Emerging Field of Biophotonic Communication

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 22:15:02 -0800

Sergei Mayburov at the Lebedev Institute of Physics in Moscow suggests that optical communication is a natural process in many cells of body, closely related to photosynthesis. (Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/24425/?a=f)

IBM scientists create rapid disease diagnostic chip

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 22:26:45 -0800

IBM scientists have created a fast, one-step point-of-care-diagnostic test, based on a silicon chip that uses capillary forces to analyze tiny samples of blood serum for the presence of disease markers. It requires less sample volume, is significantly faster, portable, easy to use, and can test for many diseases, including cardiovascular disease -- a small sample of a patient's serum could be tested immediately following a heart attack to enable the doctor to quickly take a course of action to help the patient survive. (Source: http://www.physorg.com/news177880059.html)

Medibots: The world's smallest surgeons

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 22:50:04 -0800

Advances in robotics could revolutionize healthcare, pushing the limits of what surgeons can achieve, from worm-inspired capsules to crawl through your gut, and systems swallowed in pieces that assemble themselves inside the body, to surgical robots that will soon be ready to embark on a fantastic voyage through our bodies, homing in on the part that's ailing and fixing it from the inside. Swimming camera capsule (The Royal College of Surgeons / Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna) (Source: http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20427351.100-medibots-the-worlds-smallest-surgeons.html)

The Power Of Social Distribution

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 02:27:00 -0800

This entry is part 1 of 0 in the series social media directions

social media directions

[...]

It’s ok to have more than one innovation at a time

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 06:20:43 -0800

Organizations seem so often to have trouble innovating at all, and if they do change, they often just make one change at a time. More rare is a comprehensive rethinking of a product, or system, or business model. But there may be great opportunities for those who can take on a whole system, rethink it, and make something new happen.

The Dutch company 94wines combines a sweep of innovations in its packaging and products. Many of these are innovations that we’ve been keeping an eye on for our Future of Packaging programs, so it's great to see real product introductions that put them to use.

The French variety wines 94wines sells are offered in a broad array of varieties, tapping niche taste interests. Consumers on their site answer six questions to get at their wine taste preferences. That comes in the form of a WineID, which the 94wines site will remember for you.

My “Wine ID” (can we assume there’s a play on words: ID as in identification and id, as in the unconscious psyche?) includes three varieties 5—Fresh, 22—Spicy, and 24—Oaky. That may not be quite right, but I rushed the questions a little.

The bottles are colored and numbered to indicate each variety, rather than being labeled with appellation and vintner, giving consumers two visual identifiers to help them get the right one. This, I suppose, is a “dumbing down” to suit harried consumers who aren’t and don’t want to be, wine experts.

The wines also allow custom content, not on their standard labels, but as digital content accessible by a QR code (2D barcode) on the bottle. iPhone users, and presumably others with a phone camera with a QR code app, can access the product information on their mobiles. People can also key in a number that is with the QR code on the 94wines website, and get the same information. But customers placing an order can customize the product by uploading their thoughts, images, etc., so that anyone they give the wine to will see that information. Thus, a custom label of a sort.

The 94wines system includes these innovations:

“Long tail” niche/variety marketing play
Customization via custom label information
Mass customization via assessment of a consumer’s taste preferences in their “WineID”
Information accessible online, using the package as a point of access, with minimal labeling
Interaction of package with handheld device: 2D barcodes, readable by iPhone, etc.
Visual/intuitive cues in package design

What a great package! It’s terrific to see more than just incremental innovation, but rather a cocktail of innovations. Let’s hope it makes them some money. By the way, for now, they deliver mainly in the Netherlands.

Images: www.94wines.com

Computers Can't Answer Everything

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 19:12:36 -0800

The real power of natural language processing can only be unlocked by acknowledging its limitations and filling in the gaps with human intelligence, says Damon Horowitz, chief technology officer and cofounder of Aardvark. "We wanted to let another human being answer and have the machine do the heavy lifting of indexing everybody--the tens of thousands of people who are in your extended network and all of the things that those people know," he said. (Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/communications/23978/)

Thin-Film Solar with High Efficiency

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 19:17:20 -0800

Solar cells made from cheap nanocrystal-based inks have the potential to be as efficient as the conventional inorganic cells currently used in solar panels, but can be printed less expensively, says Solexant, which expects to sell modules for $1 per watt, with efficiencies above 10 percent. (Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/business/23980/)

Blindness Causes Structural Brain Changes, Implying Brain Can Re-Organize Itself to Adapt

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 19:41:25 -0800

Blindness causes structural changes in the brain, indicating that the brain may reorganize itself functionally in order to adapt to a loss in sensory input, say UCLA Department of Neurology scientists. For long-term blind subjects, they found significant enlargement in areas of the brain not responsible for vision, such as working memory and improved ability to feel subtle changes in temperature and distinguish between the auditory echoes caused by walls and windows. (Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091118143259.htm)

Andy Grove's Prescription for Health Care

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 22:56:11 -0800

Andrew S. Grove, the 73-year-old former chief executive of Intel, is advocating a new master's degree program in translational medicine (the art of taking laboratory, one-off discoveries and putting them into mass production -- in higher volume and at lower cost than previous treatments). The degree would combine the talents mainly of engineering and medical schools, with some business know-how tossed in. (Source: http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/18/andy-groves-prescription-for-health-care/)

Time-travelling browsers navigate the web's past

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 23:04:08 -0800

Finding old versions of web pages could become far simpler thanks to Memento, a "time-travelling" web browsing technology being pioneered at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico. (Source: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18158-timetravelling-browsers-navigate-the-webs-past.html)

Venture Summit Silicon Valley Top 100 Registration

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 16:08:00 -0800

Living Life While Working Hard

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 16:11:00 -0800

I had a 19 hour day yesterday – it started when I woke up at my hotel at 26th Street at 5am and ended when I hit the sack at midnight. I had a bunch of meetings, a few scheduled phone calls, was on a panel, and stayed on top of my email throughout the day. I even managed to keep my FishVille fish fed and got my Cafe World food served before it spoiled.

[...]

Communicating in the Internet Age

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 16:16:00 -0800

I spent the first week of November at USC’s Annenberg School of Communications and Journalism. USC Annenberg is one of the largest and most comprehensive schools of its kind in the world, with research and educational programs in communications, journalism, public diplomacy, public relations, media, educations and related areas. It is thus in a unique position to analyze and influence[...]

'Social TV' is Here

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 17:07:00 -0800

Facebook integration around video got its first high profile exposure with CNN and the Inauguration of President Obama, but the first was last year's collaboration with Joost.

A spokesperson for Facebook has told Beet.TV:

"Joost users who have connected their Facebook accounts continue to rank as most active group on the site.[...]

RAMP Powers Video Discovery

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 17:17:00 -0800

The effective transcription of video clips, coupled with contextual tagging, is essential to the discovery of video, says Tom Wilde, CEO of the Boston-based RAMP, formerly known as EveryZing.

The company announced its name change today at the Streaming Media West show in San Jose along with the launch of "content optimization" platform for media publishers.
[...]

What Is Your Social Strategy?

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 03:48:00 -0800

As more and more businesses migrate to use of social media it quickly becomes evident that they lack a strategy.

[...]

Report: The future of education

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 05:09:21 -0800

Earlier this year, I was invited to keynote a conference of leading US higher educators and academics at the College Board Colloquium. This is one of the leading educational conferences of the year.

The group has issued their report from the conference, and there is some pretty good coverage of the essence of my talk. Here's a key quote:

"The future of higher education is huge." Carroll shared the following observation from Microsoft: "Probably about 50 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product will be taken up by training and knowledge activities within the decade." Carroll then spoke about what is happening with "the knowledge economy." The reality is, he said, that "American workers today, whether in a trade or profession, are in a situation in which the knowledge they have is continuously going out of date and needs to be continuously replenished. What is there to be concerned about when we have such massive growth potential?"

In a nutshell, my perspective on the future of education (as found within the report) is that we need to rethink the context of "how we teach" in light of the realities that:

knowledge is growing exponentially'
the foundation of knowledge generation has forever changed
the velocity of knowledge is accelerating
exponential growth of knowledge leads to massive career specialization we are in the midst of a fundamental structural organizational and career change
By 2020 or sooner, it will be all about "just-in-time knowledge."

What is this leading to?

rapid knowledge obsolescence
rapid knowledge emergence
disappearance of existing careers
rapid emergence of new careers
an ongoing need for continuous knowledge replenishment
the migration of knowledge generation further away from academia
a massively increased challenge from overseas knowledge generation
the fast emergence of new micro-careers
an economy that succeeds through knowledge deployment
a fundamental transformation in the role of educational institutions

In other words: much of the education structure that we have in place today doesn't match the reality of what we really need to do, given the rapid change occurring in the fundamentals of knowledge.

More information:

Read Jim's comments at the from 2009 College Board Colloquium by Jim Carroll
Read the entire reportNew Visions, New Voices for the 21st Century from 2009 College Board Colloquium by Jim Carroll

The cat is out of the bag: cortical simulations with 10^9 neurons, 10^13 synapses

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 22:39:13 -0800

Results of massively parallel cortical simulations of a cat cortex, with 1.5 billion neurons and 9 trillion synapses, running on Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's Dawn Blue Gene/P supercomputer, will be presented by IBM and LLNL researchers today at the SC09 Conference on High Performance Networking and Computing in Portland. "The simulations, which incorporate phenomenological spiking neurons, individual learning synapses, axonal delays, and dynamic synaptic channels, exceed the scale of the cat cortex, marking the dawn of a new era in the scale of cortical simulations," according to the ACM proceedings abstract. BlueMatter, a new algorithm created in collaboration with Stanford University, exploits the Blue Gene supercomputing architecture in order to noninvasively measure and map the connections between all cortical and sub-cortical locations within the human brain using magnetic resonance diffusion weighted imaging. Mapping the wiring diagram of the brain is crucial to untangling its vast communication network and understanding how it represents and processes information. (IBM Research) Also see: IBM Moves Closer To Creating Computer Based on Insights From The Brain (Source: )

Bendable Magnetic Interface

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 00:00:22 -0800

Microsoft's experimental tactile interface lets users interact with computers by squashing, stretching, rolling, or rubbing a "sensor tile" The device produces magnetic multiple fields above its surface. By detecting disturbances to these fields, the system can track the movement of a metal object across its surface, or the manipulation of a ferrous fluid-filled bladder to sculpt 3D virtual objects. (Microsoft) (Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/computing/23969/?a=f)

Innovation: The dizzying ambition of Wolfram Alpha

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 00:34:33 -0800

Stephen Wolfram wants Wolfram Alpha to generate knowledge of its own. Alpha has been exposed to more utterances than a typical child would hear in learning a new language, allowing it to get smarter at understanding how people phrase their requests, he says. "You'll be able to ask it a question, and instead of it using knowledge that came out of a method invented 50 years ago it will invent a new method on the fly to answer it." (Source: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18163-innovation-the-dizzying-ambition-of-wolfram-alpha.html)

Bigger Not Necessarily Better, When It Comes to Brains

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 00:42:57 -0800

Tiny insects could be as intelligent as much bigger animals, despite only having a brain the size of a pinhead, say scientists at Queen Mary, University of London. Research repeatedly shows how insects are capable of some intelligent behaviors scientists previously thought was unique to larger animals. This must mean that much "advanced" thinking can actually be done with very limited neuron numbers. Computer modelling shows that even consciousness can be generated with very small neural circuits, which could in theory easily fit into an insect brain. In fact, the models suggest that counting could be achieved with only a few hundred nerve cells and only a few thousand could be enough to generate consciousness. Engineers hope that this kind of research will lead to smarter computing with the ability to recognize human facial expressions and emotions. (Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091117124009.htm)

Is Social Media Shifting?

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 03:58:00 -0800

This entry is part 37 of 37 in the series Social Media

[...]

The 2009 VC 100 Winners

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 05:00:00 -0800

The 2009 Venture Capital 100

The last 15 months have been highly uncertain for both the venture capital industry and the companies they fund, but history shows that funding entrepreneurs takes patience and endurance. The first annual AlwaysOn Venture Capital 100 highlights the one hundred individuals who have backed the most profitable winners in the last four years.

[...]

Sectors to Avoid, Invest in

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:41:00 -0800

See this video on Vator.tv »

[...]

Reinventing the future with transformative technology!

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 03:38:35 -0800

We live in transformative times. The sad fact is, many are unaware of that fact, and as a result, are missing out for opportunities for innovation.

Bill Gates once observed that "most people overestimate the amount of change that will occur in two years and underestimate the change that will occur over ten years."

Certainly that's true today. All around us, there's a tremendous amount of creative thinking occurring as people work to solve some of the biggest challenges of our times. Ten years from now, we'll sit back in awe at some of the fascinating ideas that came to fruition.

Much of this transformation is coming about as we enter the next phase in our often unique relationship with technology --what we might call pervasive connectivity. Quite simply, everything around us is starting to "plug in" --and there are tremendous opportunities for change as this happens. To ensure that we capture these opportunities, business and government must ensure that they've got a good, solid technology infrastructure that can carry them into this odd new world.

Consider the issue of energy and the environment, and the revolution that is now underway in terms of intelligent building infrastructure. In the not too distant future, most residential and commercial properties will have an HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning) infrastructure that has 'gone smart.' Right now, major industrial players are adding intelligence to the next generation of HVAC systems. We're seeing remote monitoring and management through Internet-linked thermostats; better analysis and insight into energy usage through remote management of energy production assets ; rapid response to out-of-norm operations. In the not too distant future --maybe by the time you read this article --you'll use a mobile application that will utilize its GPS connection to determine when you are getting close to home --and it will turn your furnace on.

Technologies such as these allow people to more actively control overall energy usage, and reduce the environmental impact of that use. There are broad benefits to society from encouraging the more rapid adoption of such technologies.

Then there's the revolution in thinking that is occurring in the world of long-term seniors care. Clearly, the future challenges we face are pretty stark: a massive ramp-up in demand with a shortfall in available and planned units; a funding crisis brought about by plunging investment / housing values, and a bigger tax deficit as a result of the economic challenges of today; not to forget ongoing skills and staffing issues as they very same baby boomers exit the economy in staggering numbers.

So what's going to happen? We're starting to see some big, transformative thinking that involves a lot more community and family care. With this, we'll witness the emergence of the concept of the "virtual retirement home." By 2020, most seniors will live in their own homes, and their health conditions will be actively monitored by medical professionals through a network of intelligent bio-connectivity and other devices. We won't have a lot of senior citizen homes -- we'll have virtual seniors networks.

Research is already well underway into the concept; at the University of Missouri, they're actively working with technology that allows for the use of sensors and other technologies to monitor seniors living at home. Behavioral changes involving sleeping patterns, a reduction in physical activity or other changes can trigger contact; and remote medical devices will allow for routine blood pressure and other medical test.

Then there's the transformation that is occurring throughout many industries as they learn to rethink the basic business models by which they operate. Think of efforts towards 'Car 2.0′, which involves a fundamental reinvention of current transportation mindsets. There is a strong belief that we will see a reinvention of the auto industry as the restructuring occurs; particularly as Silicon Valley begins to laser-aim its focus at the next generation of business model. Contrast the thinking of Ford versus Honda. The former retools their plant annually, building several hundred thousand models of a particular vehicle, hoping it will sell. The latter can change things up on a dime, shifting production to meet changing consumer demand in as little as ten days. It's that type of fundamental transformation that will help to encourage the economic recovery, because business organizations will be operating with far more agility and flexibility.

There are thousands of similar, low-key trends that put together, will have a huge impact on our future.

And here's a key point: all of these trends involve connectivity and technology; intelligent infrastructure and the intelligent deployment of computing horsepower. We are already in the midst of the next phase of our march to the world of pervasive connectivity. Society is only to become more reliant upon sophisticated, reliable computer infrastructure. We won't be able to get by with some of the creaky, tired, slow-to-scale systems that many of us have in place.

Here's the conundrum: one impact of the slowing economy is that leaders have stopped "thinking big" when it comes to the transformative opportunities for innovation through technology. And yet, it is clear that the world of transformative thinking and the solution to our big problems is increasingly occurring at the pace of Silicon Valley.

That means, to keep up with innovation, you have to keep up with that pace of change.

Google Submits Second Proposal for Library of the Future

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 22:47:16 -0800

Google and a coalition of authors and publishers are hoping a second draft of a legal settlement will clear the way through a thicket of copyright laws to let Google build the library of the future. (Source: http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2009/11/google-books-settlement/)

Mystery 'dark flow' extends towards edge of universe

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 23:26:30 -0800

Up to 1000 galaxy clusters have found to be streaming at up to 1000 kilometers per second towards one particular part of the cosmos, a possible sign that other universes are out there. (Source: http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20427345.000-mystery-dark-flow-extends-towards-edge-of-universe.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news)

Unfriend: the word of the year, apparently

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 23:30:44 -0800

The New Oxford American Dictionary has announced its Word Of The Year for 2009: unfriend (v. To remove someone as a "friend" on a social networking site such as Facebook). (Source: http://blogs.computerworld.com/15108/unfriend_the_word_of_the_year_apparently)

YouTube to Help Sites Gather News Clips

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 23:42:46 -0800

YouTube has signed up NPR, Politico, The Huffington Post and The San Francisco Chronicle for YouTube Direct, a new method for managing video submissions from citizen journalists. (Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/17/business/media/17youtube.html)

How Will We Keep Supercomputing Super?

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 23:57:37 -0800

Building an exascale supercomputer that can deliver a billion billion (10^18) calculations per second is going to force designers to change the way they think about putting these supercomputers together. Graphics processors (GPUs) are the first step in that process, although more esoteric technologies may emerge. (Source: http://www.nytimes.com/external/gigaom/2009/11/16/16gigaom-how-will-we-keep-supercomputing-super-85018.html)

Supercomputers with 100 million cores coming by 2018

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 00:16:55 -0800

The U.S. Department of Energy has begun holding workshops on building a system that's 1,000 times more powerful than today's top supercomputer (Jaquar's 2.3 petaflops): an exascale (10^18 calculations per second) system, which would likely arrive around the year 2018. Exascale systems will be needed for high-resolution climate models, bio energy products and smart grid development as well as fusion energy design. The Energy Department, which is responsible for funding many of the world's largest systems, wants two machines somewhere in the 2011-13 timeframe that will reach approximately 10 petaflops. (Source: http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9140928/Supercomputers_with_100_million_cores_coming_by_2018)

The Real 3D Mandelbulb

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 00:38:46 -0800

An awesome 3D equivalent of the Mandelbrot fractal has been developed. (Click image for 500x4500 pixel version) (Source: )

A 25-Year Battery

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 00:43:49 -0800

Betavoltaics, batteries that harvest energy from the nuclear decay of isotopes to produce very low levels of current and last for decades without needing to be replaced, are being developed by Widetronix. (Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/23959/)

What Is The Market's Intention?

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 03:10:00 -0800

This entry is part 15 of 15 in the series Conversational Currency

Marketers act as though we are all cattle waiting to be herded into a transaction.

[...]

The importance of innovation in the era of the "new normal"

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 05:57:19 -0800

The CEO of the American Chamber of Commerce recently caught the essence of the state of our "new normal", when he observed that we're in the midst of "this move from a really bad economy, to the next economy."

What is the shape of that next economy? While we can't be certain as to the specifics, we do know that it is going to involve a lot more high velocity business change. If that's the case, then the ability of an organization to respond to rapid, relentless, continuous change that will increasingly define its future success.

And so as we climb our way out of a global recession, it's perhaps a good time for business organizations to ask themselves if they're well positioned for what comes next - whatever that might be!

Are they? I'm not so sure. In the last decade, as a futurist and innovation consultant speaking at countless numbers of global conferences, I've had the remarkable opportunity to spend time with the senior leadership of some of the worlds most innovative, world-class organizations, ranging from Rockwell Collins and General Dynamics, to the Walt Disney Corporation, Lincoln Financial and Ingersoll Rand, among others.

In doing so, I've witnessed first hand what innovation leaders are doing to ensure that they can survive and thrive in a period of n rapid economic change.

What are they focused on?

Mastering fast markets: they're immersed in a world in which product innovations occur so fast that that "time to market" is now measured in weeks rather than years.
Product innovation: They're busy ensuring that they have a continual pipeline of new products or services that will generate new revenue as old revenue is displaced.
Dealing with disruptive technology: They're dealing with the fact that a furious pace of technological innovation continues unabated, with the rapid emergence of new technologies that change entire industries: what happens, for example, when our cell phones and smart phones become the credit card infrastructure of the future?
Customer engagement: They are involved in rapidly changing the method by which they engage with their customer base and re-energizing their brand, knowing that consumer mindset has become increasingly difficult to capture as the relentless march of social networking technologies continues unabated.
Business model innovation: They are busy innovating with business models, knowing that the only certainty for future success is uncertainty. Consider Wizzit, a South African bank that is based entirely upon the exchange of text messages. That business model disruption right there!

No matter what type of high velocity change organizations are dealing with, in many cases it comes down to their adaptability and capability to share ideas, collaborate, and form 'fast teams" to tackle new opportunities and challenges.

It's not just these areas that they are focused upon. They also know that their ability to compete on the global stage requires that they operate with a startling degree of efficiency. They ensure that they have a cost structure that permits them to operate in a world of razor tight margins. They know that their success increasingly comes from the existence of an intelligent, up to date network and technology infrastructure that provides the foundation for their innovation engine.

That's the new world of business, and we'd do well to pay attention to it. The reality for many organizations going forward is that they must learn to act and operate at the same high degree of razor-sharp clarity of action as any other global competitors. That means squeezing out every drop of potential efficiency as operating margins become thinner. Managing with continued ongoing cost input volatility, particularly as a result of the wild gyrations in global currency markets. Learning to collaborate and generate innovative insight at blinding speed.

In a nutshell, many companies must operate more efficiently, and learn to contend like global competitors. They need to learn to scale, act fast, innovate fast, and compete fast.

To do that, they've got to make sure that they've got the necessary foundation in place that allows us to do what the global competition does.

First universal programmable quantum computer unveiled

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 19:32:44 -0800

The world's first universal programmable quantum computer, capable of one- or two-qubit logic operations at 79 percent accuracy, has been demonstrated by National Institute of Standards and Technology scientists. (Source: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18154-first-universal-programmable-quantum-computer-unveiled.html)

Water Discovery Fuels Hope to Colonize the Moon

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 20:01:09 -0800

The LCROSS probe discovered the equivalent of a dozen 2-gallon buckets of water in the form of ice, in a crater at the lunar south pole. Having that store of water on the moon could be a boon to possible future lunar camps. In addition to a source of drinking water, lunar water ice could be broken into its constituent hydrogen and oxygen atoms, ultimately to be used in rocket fuel. (Source: http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/091113-moon-water-colony.html)

Philip Rosedale: The web needs to be more lifelike

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 20:05:16 -0800

Residents of Second Life have spent one billion hours in this digital world. Now founder Philip Rosedale has plans to push the concept much further in a new virtual venture. "My expectation is we will see a web-scale usage fairly soon, meaning 1 billion people," says Rosedale. "I think the total GDP of virtual worlds will catch up with real-world GDP over the next 20 to 30 years." (Source: http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20427347.200-philip-rosedale-the-web-needs-to-be-more-lifelike.html)

A joyride through the nanoworld

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 20:14:40 -0800

Chemist George Whitesides has collaborated with MIT and Harvard photographer-in-residence Felice Frankel to produce No Small Matter, a book of images of the micro and nanoworld. Atomic force microscope (Felice Frankel) (Source: http://www.newscientist.com/gallery/no-small-matter)

Cray's Jaquar now world's fastest supercomputer

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 20:42:34 -0800

The Jaguar Cray supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Laboratory has become the world's most powerful supercomputer, at 1.75 petaflops per second, edging out the IBM Roadrunner system at the U.S. Department of Energy's Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, which has slowed slightly to 1.04 petaflops per second. The newest version of the TOP500 list, which is issued twice yearly, will be formally presented on Tuesday, Nov. 17, at the SC09 Conference, to be held at the Oregon Convention Center in Portland. Source: Top 500 news release (Source: )

Reality Bytes

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 21:40:34 -0800

The action figures in toy stores for James Cameron's forthcoming Avatar film add an an "augmented reality" feature to toys, the first to add artificial reality to a product. (Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/15/magazine/15FOB-consumed-t.html)

Tiny Particles Can Deliver Antioxidant Enzyme to Injured Heart Cells

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 21:54:08 -0800

Georgia Tech scientists have developed microscopic polymer beads that can deliver an antioxidant enzyme made naturally by the body into the heart, reducing the number of dying cells and resulting in improved heart function in rats. The enzyme in the particles, called superoxide dismutase (SOD), soaks up toxic free radicals produced when cells are deprived of blood during a heart attack. (Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091115191019.htm)

Listen, Watch, Read: Computers Search for Meaning

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 21:59:50 -0800

European researchers in the MESH project have created the first integrated semantic search platform that integrates text, video and audio. The platform can search annotated files from any type of media -- photographs, videos, sound recordings, text, document scans -- using optical character recognition, automated speech recognition and automatic annotation of movies and photographs that track salient concepts. (Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091111120759.htm)

Tips for improving cardiac-arrest survival

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 22:12:23 -0800

Science Daily reports two important tips for improving cardiac arrest victims' chances of survival: - Use continuous chest compressions without stopping for mouth-to-mouth breathing (Continuous Chest Compression-CPR Improved Cardiac Arrest Survival in Arizona) - Cool the brain: RhinoChill, for use by emergency medical technicians, is approved for marketing in Europe (Early Cooling in Cardiac Arrest May Improve Survival) (Source: )

Singularity University Executive Program: Ray Kurzweil's Opening Address

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 23:01:59 -0800

Over the last week, Singularity University has been holding an Executive Program with the goal of preparing executives for the "imminent disruption and opportunities resulting from exponentially accelerating technologies." (Source: http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/11/13/singularity-university-executive-program-ray-kurzweils-opening-address/)

What Will Happen To Business Week?

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 03:19:00 -0800

This entry is part 36 of 36 in the series Social Media

McGraw-Hill recently decided to sell Business Week.

[...]

Executive search for - Director, Product Quality - Consumer Electronics, Silicon Valley

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:20:00 -0800

Director, Product Quality

High-Tech Consumer Electronics

Hottest Consumer Electronic Gadget of the Century

Silicon Valley, California & Shenzhen, China

Why You Want this Position

[...]

Can personalized medicine fix healthcare?

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 12:21:04 -0800

"Healthcare is a trial and error industry...because the current pharma R&D model of blockbusters for broad patient groups is broken," says Rita Lim-Wilby, Conference Director at PCI Pharma. "The solution is targeted therapeutics." That's the premise of PCI Pharma's "Advances Towards Personalized Medicine," a one-day symposium, to be held at the Claremont Resort and Spa, Berkeley, California, on Thursday, November 19, 2009, featuring ten speakers from the University of California-Berkeley, Pfizer, CollabRx, Illumina, and six other leading organizations engaged in developing targeted therapeutics and companion diagnostics to transform healthcare. Among the speakers: Jay M. Tenenbaum, Chairman, Founder and Chief Scientist of CollabRx, and Chairman and Founder of CommerceNet, will have "a conversation about healthcare, medicine, and what's possible" with the audience*. He will focus on redesigning drug development and on his vision for the Health Commons, a collaboration between CommerceNet, Science Commons, Public Library of Science, and CollabRx designed to transform the pace and number of drug development projects by removing the barriers to knowledge sharing and collaboration. Steven Brenner, founder of Genome Commons, UC Berkeley, will present an open source infrastructure to realize the transformative opportunities presented by the ready availability of genomic data. Through the Genome Commons, scientists will be able to predict the risk of particular diseases from an individual genome by comparison with known genomes for defined patient profiles and disease categories. Adam Pavlicek, Senior Principal Scientist at Pfizer, will present a tumor classification system to predict new indications for existing cancer therapies, applying existing drugs to new tumor types to accelerate the number of treatable cancers. More information: PCI Pharma, 858-344-0156, info@PlanetConnect.com, lifescience.planetconnect.com/program/pmberkeley2009. * KurzweiiAI.net newsletter readers have been invited to submit comments and questions via info@PlanetConnect.com, with name and affiliation optional. The conversation will be posted in print or audio form. -Ed. (Source: )

What Is Off-Line Social Media?

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 07:08:00 -0800

This entry is part 35 of 35 in the series Social Media

[...]

The AO X Fund: Week 39

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 14:56:00 -0800

The X Fund's median stock has posted 47% earnings and 26% sales growth, year over year. Check out the fund's Q3 earnings hits and misses.

The AlwaysOn X Fund portfolio, which is a tech-focused, long-only portfolio, advanced 2.3% last week, while the NASDAQ was up 2.6% and the S&P 500 was up 2.3%. Since its inception on January 5, 2009, the AO X Fund is up 44.7%, while the NASDAQ is up 32.8%, and the S&P 500 is up 17.4%.
[...]

Top 10 ways to “futureproof” your packaging

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 08:36:48 -0800

Here's a special feature we've also published on Leading Futurists LLC's website under our Future of Packaging resources. The advice could easily be interpreted for other products and services that need "futureproofing":

To "future proof" your packaging, i.e. to make sure it's right for the immediate and longer-term future, now to 5 or 10 years from now, you should:

Serve – Recognize that your package performs a service-to a retailer or to a consumer, for example. It's not just an afterthought, it's not just a wrapper, it is a technology that delivers the consumer and your business customer value. Anything that does not serve should be left out. That includes technical flourishes consumers don't notice or care about, built-in hassles such as hard-to-open seals, disposal hassles, and other time-wasters.
Be humble – You should make sure your package is as sustainable as you can affordably make it. Avoid claims that the item is totally green if it is not. The science of sustainability will change, and since we'll continually learn new things, we need to show some eco-humility around our greenness claims.
Tell a story – Your package should tell its story well, from "What is this? And "Who made it?" to "How do I use it for the most success?" and "What can this package do for me?" This is not limited to what is on the package label-since a package can connect the user, via the network, to a world of information-but the graphic and label design are essential to getting it right. And, of course, part of telling the story comes with advertising and other messages in the media.
Be ready for change – Your package should be part of an adaptable system that does not overly depend on a particular sourcing for materials, a particular regulatory regime, or a single, or narrow range of sizing options, etc. This recognizes the risks in our complex world, with changing resource costs and availability, changing regulation, and economic turbulence. And make sure the fit works with the changes retailers and suppliers are making.
Anticipate where the customers are going – Create packages that fit emerging realities in the business marketplace and changing values in the consumer market. For consumers, current examples that will continue to grow in importance include the desire for authenticity, and interest in products that "fit who I am" especially for affluent markets, and fits rising aspirations for success and quality, if focused on the emerging markets. For retailers, changes in how goods are merchandised and sold, including automating inventory and checkout, may drive new needs.
Know the whole system – Consider how the package ultimately will be used, and misused, including improper disposal, littering, composting, burning, reuse in the home, etc. Consider the whole value chain. Consumers have no particular incentive to handle the package they way you want them to. Ultimately, at least some people, and some regulators, will consider the producer responsible, or at least target the package. This is already happening in more places with plastic bags, for example.
Design for disposal and recycling – This means not needlessly combining non-recyclable materials, necessitating the consumer take something apart, and not being difficult to crush or crumple, for example. Consider what you would do, what packaging choices you would make if you, as producer, were going to get all of the packaging back.
Create and use an identity – Your package can connect the product to an online identity. This becomes both powerful and essential, as more people explore what to buy and learn about products they buy online-seeing additional information, consumer reviews and comments, and so on. There are already proven technologies, e.g. using 2D barcodes, which make it possible for anyone to image the barcode on a package with their mobile phone, and get connected to information, contests, or a community of users. Scanbuy [www.scanbuy.com], a DuPont venture, has pioneered in this area.
Enable local production - For many products, the "carbon footprint" and other factors are pressing for greater local production. In fact, a small movement of consumers is trying to consume locally to reduce the impact of their consumption on the environment. If we move to much more carbon footprint measurement, as well as focusing on other environmental aspects of consumption, e.g. energy used in agriculture and shipping food, there will be more pressure to produce goods locally. Whether or not you agree a local strategy makes sense for everything in the market, now is probably not the time to reduce the number of regional plants for producing packaging and products.
Avoid "wrap rage" - Finally, keep a focus on what are you handing the consumer to deal with. They may understand why a paint can has to be hard to open, but should they have to struggle with a bag of chips or pack of batteries? In doing so, it should put the consumer first, not just optimize for the retail and distribution networks.

Thanks for the inspiration to Jeff Hilton, IMG Brandwire, for his post "Are You Guilty of the 10 Most Common Packaging Mistakes?" Link [http://campaign-archive.com/?u=468b6c268eb6609e5542d894a&id=bb6cf1a107]. His thoughts led me to think, what are the kinds of things you can do right or wrong in packaging with the future in mind.

Images: Orphan Jones, Valentina Powers, and Scrapthispack, via Flickr, creative commons license

YouTube to get high-def 1080p player

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 22:25:36 -0800

YouTube will provide an option for full HD 1080p resolution and a new full-screen player within days. (Source: http://news.cnet.com/8301-17939_109-10396826-2.html)

IMMERSE IN THE FUTURE

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 22:41:54 -0800

The latest in immersive media, 3D domes, neurofeedback art, virtual worlds and other cutting-edge media formats and their potential as tools for transformation will be explored at IMMERSE IN THE FUTURE: A VISIONARY EVENING OF ARTS, MEDIA AND ENTERTAINMENT IN THE 21ST CENTURY, Monday, November 16th in Los Angeles and in Second Life. The event will include presentations by the LA Opera; Kathy Eldon, Founder of Creative Visions Foundation; John Raatz, Founder of GATE; Ed Lantz, Founder of IMERSA and Vortex Immersion Media and the c3: Center for Conscious Creativity, followed by an inspiring keynote by noted author and futurist, Jerome Glenn, the Director of the Millennium Project offering insights on the future of arts, media and entertainment and their effects on global culture. Glenn will also announce a partnership with c3 to create an international group of futuristic artists and media visionaries, and institutions, to become the Global Arts and Media Node for the Millennium Project's "State of the Future" report. More info Second Life access (Source: )

Suite of chatterbox genes discovered

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 23:34:09 -0800

By combining human and chimp Foxp2 genes in a petri dish, University of California, Los Angeles neuroscientists have identified 116 genes controlled by Foxp2 that responded differently to the human version of Foxp2 than the chimp version, supporting Foxp2's suggested role in the evolution of language and speech. In another experiment, they found a striking overlap between the genes whose activity was different in the human brain tissue and the set of genes that are controlled differently by human Foxp2, suggesting that a significant part of the difference between human and chimpanzee brains could be explained by two small changes in one gene. (Source: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18140-suite-of-chatterbox-genes-discovered.html)

Signature of consciousness captured in brain scans

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 23:43:39 -0800

Reproducibility -- the replication of similar neural patterns in the brain each time it becomes conscious of the same sensory input -- gives us clues as to what consciousness is, Princeton University researchers have found in fMRI experiments. The method could also be used in the future to tell if someone in a coma is conscious, or probe the consciousness of people under anesthesia. (Source: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18150-signature-of-consciousness-captured-in-brain-scans.html)

Contact lenses to get built-in virtual graphics

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 23:51:45 -0800

University of Washington researchers are developing a contact lens with embedded microelectronics for overlaying graphics on the real world that could provide a compelling augmented reality experience. (Source: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18146-contact-lenses-to-get-builtin-virtual-graphics.html)

Biodegradable Transistors

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 00:00:46 -0800

Fully biodegradable organic transistors have been fabricated by researchers at Stanford University. They could be used to control temporary medical implants placed in the body during surgery, and help monitor the healing process from inside the body. (Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/biomedicine/23940/)

To Make Memories, New Neurons Must Erase Older Ones

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 00:25:56 -0800

We may experience difficulties in acquiring new information because the storage capacity of the hippocampus is "occupied by un-erased old memories," researchers at the University of Toyama in Japan researchers suggest, based on evidence from experiments with mice and rats. (Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091112121601.htm)

Mood Improves On Low-fat, But Not Low-carb, Diet Plan

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 00:30:39 -0800

After one year, a low-calorie, low-fat diet appears more beneficial to dieters' mood than a low-carbohydrate plan with the same number of calories, researchers at Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation-Food and Nutritional Sciences, Adelaide, Australia have found. (Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091109173614.htm)

Robo-Rehab at Home

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 00:41:41 -0800

Northeastern University researchers have developed portable robotic devices for the knee, wrist, pelvis, and ankle that are portable and cheap enough to allow continuation of the rehabilitation process at home. (Biomedical Mechatronics Laboratory, Northeastern University) (Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/computing/23939/?nlid=2512&a=f)

DARPA: Inventing this side of the impossible

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 20:17:33 -0800

Prosthetic arms as nimble and light as the real thing, driverless cars that work their way through real traffic, a portable robotic emergency room, and scramjets able to race around the world in just a few hours are among the DARPA projects profiled by journalist Michael Belfiore in a new book, The Department of Mad Scientists. (Source: http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20427335.700-darpa-inventing-this-side-of-the-impossible.html)

Longevity tied to genes that preserve tips of chromosomes

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 20:33:30 -0800

Researchers at Albert Einstein College of Medicine have found a clear link between living to 100 and inheriting a hyperactive version of an enzyme that rebuilds telomeres (the tip ends of chromosomes). (Source: http://www.physorg.com/news177186096.html)

Iowa State engineers develop 3-D software to give doctors, students a view inside the body

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 20:38:37 -0800

Iowa State University engineers have developed technology that converts 2-D medical scans into detailed 3-D images that can be used to plan a surgery or teach a lesson in anatomy. (Source: http://www.physorg.com/news177177522.html)

New search technique for images and videos has broad applications

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 20:54:00 -0800

Engineers at the University of California, Santa Cruz have developed a new approach to a fundamental problem in computer vision: how to program a computer to recognize or categorize what it "sees" in an image or video. The software analyzes the map of pixel relationships and determines the salient geometric features of the object or action. These components remain perceptually constant within an object regardless of image quality. Their software could change the way people search the Web for photos and videos, and it may have applications in many other areas, such as video surveillance and security systems. (Source: http://www.physorg.com/news177095786.html)

Digital 'Cloud' could form over London for the 2012 Olympics

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 21:09:50 -0800

MIT researchers have proposed to build a tourist attraction called "The Cloud" in London for the 2012 Olympics. The structure would consist of two 400-foot tall mesh towers that are linked by a series of interconnected plastic bubbles, which would themselves house an observation deck inside and be used to display everything from Olympic scores and highlights to a "barometer of the city's interests and moods" outside. (Source: http://www.engadget.com/2009/11/12/digital-cloud-could-form-over-london-for-the-2012-olympics/)

Wireless Phones Can Affect The Brain, Swedish Study Suggests

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 21:22:11 -0800

A study at Orebro University in Sweden indicates that mobile phones and other cordless telephones have at two biological effects on the brain: increased content of the protein transthyretin in the blood-cerebrospinal-fluid barrier (part of the brain's protection against outside influences), and various health symptoms reported by children and adolescents, with the connection strongest regarding headaches, asthmatic complaints, and impaired concentration. (Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091111121251.htm)

Today's jobless recovery was predicted in 1987

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 06:15:34 -0800

Way back in 1987, I was immersed in many of the early networking technologies which would one day form the Internet. I was convinced that we were at the edge of a transformative time, and that the emerging global network would have a profound impact on our world -- politics, the structure of organizations and jobs.

I remember being stunned when I read an editorial in the New York Times that October, which forever shaped my view of the future.

The article essentially predicted a future in which organizations would become smaller, grow and contract as needs arise, and become something fundamentally different.

That one article forever shaped my view of the future, and has formed the basis of much of what I focus upon today in terms of the transformative trends that surround us.

Fast forward to today's economy. With this recovery, as with all others before, organizations are increasingly reluctant to hire staff as they continue to shed even more staff. Organizations are going to go forward with a smaller employee footprint. They're expanding and contracting as necessary. It's all about contract work, part time relationships, and external partnerships.

This is not a new trend; indeed, back in the mid-90's, I wrote a variety of articles and chapters in various of my books that touched on this theme in a variety of ways. I've put online a chapter from my 1997 book, Surviving the Information Age, which took a look at this trend. Read it now, and it was stunningly accurate. (The link is below).

For now, this editorial from 1987 makes for a great read.

"Tomorrow's Company Won't Have Walls", New York Times, October 1987
The hub of the network organization will be small, centralized and local. At the same time, it will be connected to an extended network that is big, decentralized and global. People from the network and from outside the company will join the group at the hub for periods of time and then leave it.
But the network organization will also present its own set of paradoxes. For instance, how will these new organizations be able to manage the often conflicting interests of the centralized hub and the decentralized network? And how can a system that is both centralized and decentralized be unified and coordinated and quick to respond to changes in the market place?
For the global organization of the future, the ability to acquire new products, services, technologies and capital will not be the problem. The marketplace is crowded with each of these as never before.
But for exactly this reason, the challenge for each company will be to nurture its own unique culture and develop the quality of its human resources. That is because competitive advantage will rest increasingly in the way each network organization gathers and assesses information, makes its decisions and then carries out those decisions.
The 21st-century will be full of organizational surprises. The challenge of arranging cooperative efforts between companies to achieve strategic gains is beginning to emerge. Changes in the marketplace have given companies from around the world the opportunity to develop these new linkages. Advances in telecommunications technology also enable companies to bring people together for competitive advantage. The time has now come to form new global collections of companies, and to fully utilize human relationships.

Now read the chapter from my book of 12 years ago, Surviving the Information Age, in which I wrote about what this 1987 New York Times article really meant. The predictions were pretty bang on.

Today? We're in the midst of the jobless recovery - exactly what was predicted. Companies aren't hiring back staff but they will be hiring back lots of people through contracts and partnerships!

More information:

Read Careers End from Surviving the Information Age by Jim Carroll

Scientists Decipher The Formation Of Lasting Memories

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 20:45:05 -0800

Researchers at Karolinska Institutet have discovered that signalling via a receptor molecule called nogo receptor 1 (NgR1) in the nerve membrane plays a key part in forming lasting memories during the first week after an event. The scientists hope that their findings will eventually help in the development of new treatments for memory impairments, such as those related to Alzheimer's and stroke. Medicines designed to target the NgR1 receptor system should be able to improve the brain's ability to form long-term memories. (Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091110105347.htm)

DNA Origami Nanoscale Breadboards Developed For Carbon Nanotube Circuits

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 21:02:12 -0800

Caltech researchers have developed simple nanometer-scale electronic circuits out of carbon nanotubes by sticking them to DNA origami in a desired geometric pattern. DNA origami is a type of self-assembled structure made from DNA that can be programmed to form nearly limitless shapes and patterns. It is created from a long single strand of viral DNA and a mixture of different short synthetic DNA strands that bind to and "staple" the viral DNA into the desired shape, typically about 100 nanometers (nm) on a side. The researchers expect that the approach can be improved and extended to reliably construct more complex circuits involving carbon nanotubes and perhaps other elements including electrodes and wiring, and can be scalable to complex logic units, and to do this for thousands or millions or billions of units that self-assemble in parallel. (Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091110112440.htm)

NASA Reproduces A Building Block Of Life In Laboratory

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 21:12:21 -0800

NASA Ames scientists studying the origin of life have non-biologically reproduced uracil (a component of RNA) in the laboratory, under conditions found in space, where pyrimidine (frozen in water ice) exposed to ultraviolet radiation produces uracil. (Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091110070320.htm)

A Dream Interpretation: Tuneups for the Brain

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 21:25:52 -0800

Dr. J. Allan Hobson, a psychiatrist and sleep researcher at Harvard, argues that dreaming is a parallel state of consciousness that is continually running but normally suppressed during waking. This is supported by research on lucid dreaming, which has been found to have elements of both rapid-eye-movement (REM) sleep and of waking. Hobson argues that the main function of REM, when most dreaming occurs, is physiological: the brain is warming its circuits, anticipating the sights and sounds and emotions of waking. He also suggests that the flights of imagination in schizophrenia may be related to an abnormal activation of a dreaming consciousness. (Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/10/health/10mind.html)

Mimicking the Building Prowess of Nature

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 21:56:16 -0800

Scientists such as Joanna Aizenberg, a materials scientist at Harvard University, are building new materials using inspiration from complex biological forms. She aims to decipher some of Mother Nature's unique designs, including dirt-resistant sea urchins and sea sponges made of super-strong light-conducting glass, to develop novel materials that, like these organisms, can self-assemble and sense and respond to their environment. Nanobristles (Joanna Aizenberg) (Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/biomedicine/23933/)

Watching The Body's Metabolism Using Ultra Low Field MRI

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 22:06:27 -0800

Los Alamos National Laboratory scientists have replaced the large magnets needed for MRI by using a combination of "dynamic nuclear polarization" to align carbon 13 nuclei before they are injected into the body and a new generation of superconducting quantum interference devices (SQUIDS) to pick up the signals used to reconstruct an image. That should make ultra low field MRI images of metabolism in action even easier to make and paves the way for real time imaging of metabolism. (Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/24386/)

So you want to be a futurist

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 05:32:26 -0800

Now and then I hear from people who want to be futurists. They get what I see as "the call" and there's no dissuading most of them who have discovered the field and what (they assume) it has to offer. It's not an easy profession to enter, but there are some ways to find out more, get training, and perhaps get started. These thoughts are necessarily U.S. focused–that's all I am qualified to talk about!

How do you get to be a futurist?

Futurists are sometimes people with a degree in futures studies, sometimes people who have gone to work for a futurist/futures organization and learned the business, and most often people who have decided they love exploring the future and have learned about the tools and techniques of foresight, and announced that they are futurists. I have to assert that there's nothing wrong with the non-degree approach–I got to futures that way myself, having on-the-job training, but no degree in the field.

A lot of people, however, become futurists not only without studying futures studies in a program, but also without working for a futures organization. They "become" futurists in whateever part of their professional or personal life they begin to focus on change, envisioning future possibilities, and deeper strategic thinking.

Go be a futurist, versus be a futurist where you are

A lot of people I talk to about being a futurist are sick of their job/their profession, and would like to go do something cool. Being a futurist is definitely cool! But for most people, it's valuable to recognize the expertise you already have. You can leverage your professional skills and contacts to give yourself a firm base on which to build a futures career. So you might want to consider being a futurist in the field you are already in.

Some first steps

Your best way to explore the futurist profession further is to meet some professional futurists and get their advice. Some ready ways to do that are:

call them on the phone for a chat–most are generous with their time and will gladly talk with you
go to a professional futurists event–the Association of Professional Futurists Spring meetings are a great place to meet and get to know futurist professionals, and the World Futures Society conferences (normally in late July, rotating among different cities in North America) offer a mix of people interested in the future and those working as foresight professionals
Join the Foresight Network, an online community of futurists and people interested in the future
Find the futurists at Poptech, TED, SXSW, and other events that draw forward thinking people

Then, you may consider taking a course and seeing how your skills fit, whether you like the kind of work futures involves, and so on. There are online offerings from several futures studies programs.

Resources for futures degree programs

I am best informed about the U.S.-based programs in futures studies, including graduate programs at:

Each offers a first class program in futures. I know the key faculty at all three.

There are also foresight events and educational programs around the world, including those connected with:

The Australian Futures Foundation [www.futuresfoundation.org.au]
The University of Stellenbosch, South Africa [http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/]
Swinburne University in Australia [http://www.swinburne.edu.au/business/agse/strategic-foresight-course.htm]
Graduate Institute of Futures Studies, Tamkang University, Taiwan.

The University of Houston Futures Program offers information on its program and links to the main futures/foresight graduate programs around the world

The Association of Professional Futurists' About the Futures Field is also a resource for people interested in the profession.

World Future Society courses

The World Future Society annual conferences offer introductory courses that are inexpensive, and taught by leading practitioners in the field. They are a good way to learn a little more about the work of a futurist without committing to a degree program. The WFS conferences are a smorgasbord of futures sessions, and you may find good ideas there, good conversations, and people to talk to about the work of the futurist. WFS courses. See WFS Courses.

If you really decide to make a go of this, great. And let me know how it goes, and how I can help further.

Image: seanmcgrath, via Flickr, cc license

Setting Sail Into Space, Propelled by Sunshine

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 21:14:15 -0800

Over the next three years, the Planetary Society will build and fly a series of three solar-sail spacecraft dubbed LightSails powered only by sunlight, first in orbit around the Earth and eventually into deeper space. (The Planetary Society) The third, with help from a small rocket, will sail out of Earth orbit to the L1 Lagrange point (between the Earth and the Moon) with a package of scientific instruments to monitor the output of the Sun and provide early warning of magnetic storms that can disrupt power grids and damage spacecraft. (Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/10/science/space/10solar.html)

Stem Cells Restore Cognitive Abilities Impaired By Brain Tumor Treatment

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 21:34:42 -0800

UC Irvine study research with rats found that transplanted human embryonic stem cells restored learning and memory to normal levels four months after radiotherapy. (Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091109173600.htm)

Words, Gestures Are Translated By Same Brain Regions

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 21:39:44 -0800

Brain regions where spoken or written words are decoded are also important in interpreting wordless gestures, research funded by the National Institute on Deafness and Other Communication Disorders has found. The findings suggest that these brain regions may play a much broader role in the interpretation of symbols than researchers have thought, so they could be the evolutionary starting point from which language originated. These regions include the inferior frontal gyrus, or Broca's area, in the front left side of the brain, and the posterior temporal region, commonly referred to as Wernicke's area, toward the back left side of the brain. (Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091109173412.htm)

Live high-res video feeds by cell phones now possible

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 22:22:16 -0800

Mobile video broadcasting service Qik plans to announce today the first high-resolution mobile streaming service, with beta support of the new Droid cellphone handset's 720x480 (DVD-quality) video resolution, MobileCruch reports.

Still frame from sample high-res streaming video from Droid cell phone The combination allows for high-quality personal narrowcasting to family, friends, social networks, and live feeds by individuals to TV networks for breaking news or remote coverage of disasters and other events. (Source: )

Making Carbon Nanotubes into Long Fibers

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 22:41:16 -0800

Rice University scientists have developed a new method of assembling carbon nanotubes into conductive fibers hundreds of meters long that might be used as lightweight, efficient wires for the electrical grid or as the basis of structural materials and conductive textiles. (Rice University) The placement of this and the above news item was unintentional. -Ed. (Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/23921/)

Tissue Engineering a Functioning Penis

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 22:50:24 -0800

Scientists from Wake Forest University Baptist Medical Center have created penile erectile tissue and implanted it into male rabbits, developing the organ from implanted scaffolds seeded with cells from rabbit penile tissue. "Our hope is that patients with congenital abnormalities, penile cancer, traumatic injury and some cases of erectile dysfunction will benefit from this technology in the future," said Anthony Atala, M.D., director of Wake Forest's Institute for Regenerative Medicine. (Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/editors/24374/)

Theory about long and short-term memory questioned

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 23:04:37 -0800

The long-held theory that our brains use different mechanisms for forming long-term and short-term memories has been challenged by new research from University College London. Their findings identify two distinct short-term memory networks in the brain: one that functions independently of the hippocampus and remains intact in patients with long-term memory deficits, and one that is dependent on the hippocampus and is impaired along with long-term memory. (Source: http://www.physorg.com/news177005525.html)

2012 Prophecies Sparking Real Fears, Suicide Warnings

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 23:21:06 -0800

Amid the hype -- including a viral marketing campaign for 2012, the disaster movie opening Friday, with bogus scientific organizations, press releases, and 2012 whistle-blowers --some people are developing "end times" anxiety that has experts seriously concerned. NASA's Nibiru and Doomsday 2012: Questions and Answers and 2012: Beginning of the End or Why the World Won't End? web pages seek to debunk stories about the fictional planet Nibiru and predictions of doomsday in December 2012. Scenes from the motion picture "2012" (Columbia Pictures) (Source: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/11/091106-2012-movie-end-world-fears-maya-predictions.html)

How future ready is your organization?

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 06:18:11 -0800

How do you prepare people for the future, if they have no interest in it?

That might seem an interesting question, but I've come to the conclusion, after dealing with hundreds of industries and thousands of executives and professionals, that there are quite a few people out there who love the sentiment once professed by Ogden Nash: "progress is great but it's gone on way too long."

I've learned that there are two types of business executives: those who think about the future quite a bit and who are very forward-oriented in their thinking. They are very innovative, realistic, creative, and open to new ways of thinking, because they are actively preparing for rapid change in terms of skills, markets and industry fundamentals.

Then there are others who are stuck in the status quo.

Once you get into the idea that everything around you is changing at a furious pace, and you had better adapt to it, you might consider doing something about it. This might include 'change-quotient' inventory of your organization. If your people are hopelessly mired in the issues of "today" and aren't thinking how their market and industry will be changing tomorrow, then you've got a pretty big problem.

How do you determine the change-quotient? Focus on these issues:

velocity ratio : what is the rate of change within your industry? What's the velocity of business model change? How many new competitors are there, and how quickly is the industry blurring as they come into play? What's the staff turnover rate? How quickly do new products come to market?
the rate of 'rising tides': how quickly are customer expectations changing? If you're in an industry in which there are rapidly rising tides in terms of minimum service delivery, you've got an industry in which there are countless opportunities for innovative, future oriented products and processes.
innovation index: is the industry widely innovative, or are there only a few scattered folks who dare buck the current reality? Is everyone in the industry generally stuck in the past, or is there a widespread focus on the future, with a lot of innovative activity as a result?
retirement rate: Not to be crude, but how many boomers are there hanging around who want the benefits, want the salary, and want the executive responsibility, but don't want to have to do anything to confront change? This, more than anything, can be one of the key measures for change-capability.
generational tolerance:: Out on the speaking circuit, I've been meeting thousands of Gen-X and Gen-Connecters in a lot of industries who scream in silent frustration each and every day. They're stuck in organizations with management who actively work to kill new ideas. They're full of innovation, but they have no outlet for it. On the other hand, there are other industries where the frustration doesn't boil away, but instead, is tapped for opportunity. Spot those industries -- where "young people" are welcomed as a source for ideas -- and you've got an industry with massive agility and a high change-quotient
wisdom wealth: Boomers need not be change-barriers; indeed, there are some who understand where change is occurring, and who are using their years of experience - often with devastating effect - to spot and capitalize on opportunity. These are some of the most powerful organizations on the planet. They've merged the generations, and are change-masters.

Take the time to look at how quickly the future is coming at us today, and then assess whether you, and the organization you work for, are ready for it.

How your brain sees virtual you

Sun, 08 Nov 2009 20:22:37 -0800

MRI brain scans of 23-hours-a-week players of the online fantasy world World of Warcraft game reveal that areas of the brain involved in self-reflection and judgement -- the medial prefrontal cortex and posterior cingulate cortex -- seem to behave similarly when someone is thinking about their virtual self as when they think about their real one, Dartmouth University researchers have found. (Source: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18117-how-your-brain-sees-virtual-you.html)

Moore's Law: Beating The Noise Problem

Sun, 08 Nov 2009 21:21:06 -0800

It may be possible to improve computer memories by using noise to overcome the increase in noise as transistors become smaller, using stochastic resonance, researchers at the Instituto Tecnologico de Buenos Aires suggest. (Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/24366/)

Magnetic Nanoparticles To Simultaneously Diagnose, Monitor And Treat

Sun, 08 Nov 2009 22:56:46 -0800

Magnetic nanoparticles could play a crucial role in developing one-stop tools to simultaneously diagnose, monitor and treat a wide range of common diseases and injuries, says a special issue of Journal of Physics D: Applied Physics, "Progress in Applications of Magnetic Nanoparticles in Biomedicine." (Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091106084245.htm)

Findings show nanomedicine promising for treating spinal cord injuries

Sun, 08 Nov 2009 23:08:51 -0800

Purdue University researchers have discovered a new approach for repairing damaged nerve fibers in spinal cord injuries using synthetic "copolymer micelles" nanospheres injected into the blood shortly after an accident to repair damaged axons. (Source: http://www.physorg.com/news176908863.html)

Japan eyes solar station in space as new energy source

Sun, 08 Nov 2009 23:16:56 -0800

The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) plans to collect solar power in space and send it to Earth by 2030 using laser beams or microwaves, and has created a consortium (the Institute for Unmanned Space Experiment Free Flyer) that includes Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi Electric, NEC, Fujitsu and Sharp. (Japan Institute for Unmanned Space Experiment Free Flyer) (Source: http://www.physorg.com/news176879161.html)

Singularity University Kicks Off First Executive Program

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 19:57:21 -0800

Singularity University (SU) will launch the SU Executive Program at the NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, Calif. on Saturday. The nine-day program is designed to educate, inform and prepare executives for the imminent disruption and opportunities resulting from exponentially accelerating technologies. The SU Executive Program addresses six fields experiencing exponentially accelerating change: AI and Robotics, Nanotechnology, Biotechnology and Bioinformatics, Medicine and Human Machine Interface, Networks and Computing Systems, and Energy and Environmental Systems. The program will be repeated in February 2010. (Source: )

Sony demos game controller to track motion and emotion

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 20:28:42 -0800

Sony has unveiled a hands-free, full-body game controller, the Interactive Communication Unit (ICU). Like Microsoft's Natal, Sony's ICU tracks a person's whole body without their having to wear the body markers used in motion-capture studios, and it can detect a player's emotions by watching their facial expressions, and judge sex and approximate age from their appearance. CU "reads" facial expressions using a pattern-matching algorithm that has been trained on pictures of people expressing different emotions. Using cues such as the position and shape of the lips, ICU spots five basic states: happiness, anger, surprise, sadness and neutral. Video See also: Sony patents reveal emotion recognition software (Source: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18115-sony-demos-game-controller-to-track-motion-and-emotion.html)

Spoonful Of Sugar' Makes The Worms' Life Span Go Down

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 20:49:00 -0800

By adding just a small amount of glucose to the C. elegans worm diet, University of California, San Francisco and Pohang University of Science and Technology researchers found the worms lose about 20 percent of their usual life span, suggesting that a diet with a low glycemic index may extend human life span. They trace the effect to insulin signals, which can block aquaporin channels that transport glycerol. Further studies are needed to see if these same effects of sugar can be seen in mice, or even people. (Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091103121605.htm)

Sequencing Price Drops Even Lower

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 20:59:26 -0800

Complete Genomics has sequenced three human genomes for an average cost of $4,400. Lowering the cost of sequencing would allow scientists to study large numbers of human genomes, which is now thought necessary to understand the genetic basis of complex disease. (Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/biomedicine/23891/)

A Battery-Free Implantable Neural Sensor

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 21:08:36 -0800

Electrical engineers at the University of Washington have developed an implantable neural sensing chip that needs less power, drawing power from a RFID reader radio source up to a meter away. (Brian Otis, University of Washington) The NeuralWISP is a collection of smaller, more low-power components, such as a specialized signal amplifier, on a circuit board just over two centimeters long. A future version will integrate all components onto a single chip that's one millimeter by two millimeters in size. (Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/computing/23878/?a=f)

Large Hadron Collider scuttled by birdy baguette-bomber

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 21:27:40 -0800

A bird dropping a piece of bread onto outdoor machinery has been blamed for a technical fault at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), causing significant overheating in the system's supercooled magnetic doughnut. Obligatory "this is not an Onion story" statement - Ed. See also: The Collider, the Particle and a Theory About Fate (Source: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/11/05/lhc_bread_bomb_dump_incident/)

Analysis: Google's Dashboard Tackles Transparency

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 22:16:54 -0800

A new Google product called Dashboard aggregates users' personal information from more than 20 Google services into a single, password-protected page. (Source: http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2355490,00.asp)

Elevator to the Top: Space Elevators Climbing Towards Reality

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 22:21:57 -0800

The group LaserMotive successfully ran a climber up 1 kilometer of test cable at an average rate of just over 2 meters per second, qualifying for the 2nd place prize of $900,000 in The Space Elevator Games competition. The craft is powered by a stationary laser beaming the power to operate to the climber. (NASA MSFC, Artist Pat Rawling) (Source: http://www.wired.com/geekdad/2009/11/elevator-to-the-top-space-elevators-climbing-towards-reality/)

Humanity+ Summit and Biopolitics of Popular Culture Seminar

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 22:55:28 -0800

The feasibility of redesigning the human condition (such as the inevitability of aging, limitations on human and artificial intellects, unchosen psychology, suffering, and our confinement to the planet Earth) will be the focus at Humanity + Summit, Dec. 5-6 in Irvine, California at EON Reality's new state-of-the-art, 18,500-square-foot facility, built to showcase 3D visual content management and virtual reality applications. Is Hollywood reflecting a transhuman turn in popular culture, helping us imagine a day when magical and muggle can live together in a peaceful Star Trek federation? Will the merging of pop culture, social networking and virtual reality into a heightened augmented reality encourage us all to make our lives a form of participative fiction? Those are among the issues to be discussed by transhumanists, futurists, culture critics, artists, writers, and filmmakers to explore the biopolitics that are implicit in depictions of emerging technology in literature, film and television at Biopolitics of Popular Culture Seminar, December 4, 2009, preceding Humanity + Summit at the same location. (Source: http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/eventinfo/bpcs09/)

Ray Kurzweil proposes entrepreneurial peace fund and renewable-energy initiatives to Israeli leaders

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 23:35:53 -0800

Meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli President Shimon Peres at the recent Israeli Presidential Conference: Facing Tomorrow 2009, Ray Kurzweil proposed several innovations for dealing with the coming energy shortages and bolstering Israel's growing economy. He also proposed an "Entrepreneurial Peace Fund" -- a collaborative technology incubator between Israel and Palestine. The proposal was widely met with enthusiasm and support in both public and private sessions. In a speech to the conference, Netanyahu credited Kurzweil with the insight and inspiration for the Prime Minister's new National Commission for Renewable Energy initiative, with the goal of replacing fossil fuels with renewable technologies within ten years. "Yesterday, Ray Kurzweil…said that the efficiency of solar energy doubles every two years; you said that within a very brief generation it will become the energy of the proximate future," said Netanyahu. "Well, if that's the case we're in good shape. But I say let's make it happen, faster.... What I propose to do today is to establish a national commission of scientists, engineers, business and government people, to set a goal that within ten years we'll have a practical, clean, efficient substitute for oil." Speaking at the conference's Opening Plenary Session, Looking towards Tomorrow: Turning Crises into Opportunities, Kurzweil explored ways of using nanotechnology and other exponentially growing "information technologies" to transform the energy and environmental crisis into opportunities for Israel and for the world. In two additional panel discussions, Kurzweil presented his ideas on the future of artificial intelligence and reverse engineering the brain. Responding to a prediction by Henry Markram (head of the Blue Brain Project) that the human brain would be successfully reverse-engineered by 2018, Kurzweil noted that he was "the conservative" in this case, with his prediction of 2029. The annual Israeli Presidential Conference: Facing Tomorrow is attended by the world's top leaders in business, government, media and technology, focused on policy making, economic and business initiatives, and critical thinking about global challenges. Ray Kurzweil's speeches at the conference can be seen on the conference website. See thumbnail 5, "Morning Plenary Session," and thumbnail 9, "A Conversation." (Source: )

Video: Five big trends!

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 06:24:13 -0800

Peter Diamandis: the joy of taking risks

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 22:58:41 -0800

Peter Diamandis, CEO of the X Prize Foundation, wants to use our competitive instincts to make the world a better place--his latest: a heath care prize. (Source: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18113)

Woe, Superman?

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 23:33:56 -0800

In ID: the Quest for Meaning in the 21st Century, Susan Greenfield, Professor of Pharmacology at Oxford, describes a startling range of neurological possibilities: devices enabling paraplegics to activate prosthetic limbs by thought alone, and marrying brain cells with silicon chips. Further in the future, she envisages reverse cochlear implants that can not only turn sound into brain waves but also the reverse. Fitted with tiny radios, these open up the amazing possibility of directly transmitting thought from brain to brain. (Source: http://www.oxfordtoday.ox.ac.uk/2009-10/v22n1/01.shtml)

Genome 10K: A new ark

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 23:46:47 -0800

The Genome 10K Project aims to collect tissues or cells from at least 10,000 vertebrate species, enough to catalog DNA sequences from about every vertebrate genus. Its designers have decided to wait for sequencing costs to drop by a factor of 10 or more -- probably in the next couple years -- before launching their analytical program. (Source: http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/49148/title/Genome_10K_A_new_ark)

Applause For The SmartHand

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 00:05:56 -0800

Tel Aviv University researchers have successfully wired the "SmartHand," a state-of-the-art artificial hand, to existing nerve endings in the stump of a severed arm. (Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091104132708.htm)

Video - What do innovative organizations do?

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 06:03:52 -0800

Here's a quick little rap on what innovators focus upon:

There's more on this line of thinking in the Innovation category of this blog. Enjoy!

Animated ink-blot images keep unwanted bots at bay

Tue, 03 Nov 2009 20:33:04 -0800

Captchas, the scrambled images used to separate humans from software bots online, could become harder for bots to solve and easier for humans to handle by animating them, says computer scientist Niloy Mitra at the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, who along with colleagues has devised a system that should separate the bots from the humans. (Source: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18078-animated-inkblot-images-keep-unwanted-bots-at-bay.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news)

Theme-park dummy trick becomes teleconference tool

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 21:44:14 -0800

University of North Carolina researchers have developed a system to make teleconferencing more realistic by projecting video images of remote participants onto a 3D dummy model of their head. The system could also be useful by doctors and patients for remote doctor visits, and as a "prosthetic presence" for patients unable to leave their home. Video (Source: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18084-themepark-dummy-trick-becomes-teleconference-tool.html)

Implantable Silicon-Silk Electronics

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:22:09 -0800

By building thin, flexible silicon electronics on silk substrates, researchers have made implantable electronics that almost completely dissolve inside the body. University of Pennsylvania researchers are developing silk-silicon LEDs that might act as photonic tattoos that can show blood-sugar readings, and arrays of conformable electrodes that might interface with the nervous system. The electrodes might be wrapped around individual peripheral nerves to help control prostheses. And arrays of silk electrodes could be used for deep-brain stimulation to control Parkinson's symptoms. (Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/computing/23847/?a=f)

Sending Drugs to Specific Spots in a Tiny Cage

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:44:59 -0800

Washington University researchers are putting drugs inside "nanocages" (gold cubes with sides about 50 nanometers long and holes at each corner), using with near-infrared light to heat and unseal them and let the drugs out. The nanocages can also be made to bind with tumors. (Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/03/science/03obcage.html)

Breakthrough In Industrial-scale Nanotube Processing

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 23:00:35 -0800

Rice University scientists have unveiled a method for high-throughput industrial-scale processing of carbon-nanotube fibers, using chlorosulfonic acid as a solvent. The process that could lead to revolutionary advances in materials science, power distribution and nanoelectronics. (Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091102172024.htm)

Speed Limit To The Pace Of Evolution, Biologists Say

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 23:07:13 -0800

University of Pennsylvania researchers have developed a theoretical model that provides quantitative predictions for the speed of evolution on various "fitness landscapes," the dynamic and varied conditions under which bacteria, viruses and even humans adapt. A major conclusion of the work is that for some organisms, possibly including humans, continued evolution will not translate into ever-increasing fitness. (Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091102171726.htm)

AI Spacesuits Turn Astronauts Into Cyborg Biologists

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 23:25:57 -0800

Patrick McGuire, a University of Chicago geoscientist, has developed algorithms that can recognize signs of life in a barren landscape, using a Hopfield neural network, which compares incoming data against patterns it's seen before, picking out those details that qualify as new or unusual. (Source: http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/11/cyborg-astrobiologist/)

TEDMED features medical and health innovations

Tue, 03 Nov 2009 00:09:45 -0800

The four-day TEDMED conference last week introduced eye-opening medical and health innovations. Coverage has included medGadget (Day 1, Day 2, Day 3, Day 4), Scientific Amarican, Huffington Post, and Twitter. (Source: )

3,000 Images Combine for Stunning Milky Way Portrait

Tue, 03 Nov 2009 00:26:22 -0800

A new 648-megapixel panoramic image of the full night sky, melded together from 3,000 individual photographs with mathematical models, shows stars 1,000 times fainter than the human eye can see, as well as hundreds of galaxies, star clusters and nebulae. (Axel Mellinger of Central Michigan University) (Source: http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/091030-milky-way-panorama.html)

The future - opportunity or threat?

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 06:06:24 -0800

Here's a short video clip about the fast future, and a challenge as to how you think about the future.

Which camp are you in?

Requiem for the Greater Fool Economy

John Renesch — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 02:50:25 -0800

In the latter stages of the run-up to last year’s financial meltdown, the market was filled with synthetic contrivances engineered by Wall Street wunderkinds who were unthinkingly grinding out anything that could be sold at a profit, regardless of its investment value. It didn’t seem to matter if there was any real value inherent in these artificial securities as long as they could be sold.

Family photo circa 1890, great uncle Frank far right

One of the underlying assumptions ingrained in most modern-day economic activity is that you can always find someone to buy what you want to liquidate - what some refer to as “the greater fool theory.” Thus we buy houses with no down payments taking on huge mortgages in the belief that the property will appreciate and we can sell it at a profit, or “flip” it using today’s jargon. As I have asserted many times previously, this is not investing; it is speculating, pure and simple. In more recent years the stock market has also become thick with speculators churning stocks, buying options, or betting on upturns or downturns – all very casino-like. These are the kind of financial transactions that would make my great uncle Frank, a conservative banker, turn in his grave. In his day, there were clear distinctions between investing and speculating. One was for dependable income or growth, “serious money” such as retirement, saving to buy a home, college tuition for the kids, etc. The other was almost sport, like Monopoly money using only a small portion of one’s cash to take some chances and gamble a bit. It was actually fun if you could afford it.

Merchants or business owners would keep their operating reserves in safe investments and only speculate with their own personal surplus cash. Credit was rarely used and never relied upon.

But then the quick-buck mindset, along with a shift from savings/reserve-thinking to credit-thinking, permeated the culture and people got impatient and greedy. Rapid gratification became the goal. As long as we could sell something we did it. It didn’t need to have intrinsic value as long as there was someone who’d buy it and pay more than we did.

In the more recent days on Wall Street, purchase value was based on anticipated resale price. It didn’t matter what it was really worth. There's an old story about two sardine futures traders who trade inventories of canned sardines back and forth in the pits for 20 years. One day one of the traders forgets his lunch and decides to open a can of the sardines to eat. He spits out the first bite, "This is terrible," he yells. The other trader says, "Of course it's terrible, you idiot, these are trading sardines, not eating sardines."

This “greater fool economy” in which we have been living for several generations may have been revealed for what it is now that the system has blown up so publically. But I’m not so sure. Yes, perhaps many flaws in the old system may have been revealed in the past year, but will lasting lessons be learned? Will we reinvent a system that is based on true value, restrained from the silliness we previously allowed? Or will we simply polish up the old system, touch up the paint and send it out again without any meaningful structural changes or contextual shifts in underlying assumptions?

If anyone knows the answer to these questions I haven’t heard or read of them as yet. I’d like to think someone is looking at the larger, longer-term future of our economic system, the one system upon which we arguably rely more than any other. This could be wishful thinking in a vacuum of information. Have no worry though, the system will let us know soon enough. If it is only superficially patched up, it will fold again, even more disastrously next time, and our children’s children will inherit that mess.

All I can do or advise others to do is to be aware of our past participation in the dysfunctional system, how we enabled all this to happen, and make sure we engage it differently in the future. We have little influence over what others do but we can adjust our own behavior so our roles and reliances are more responsible, thus resigning our membership in the Greater Fool Economy.

For more about John, his writings and his work, see his website.

'The Future of Aging' makes the scientific case for biogerontology

Sun, 01 Nov 2009 19:20:16 -0800

The Future of Aging: Pathways to Human Life Extension has just been announced by Springer. The 40 authors make the scientific case that a biological "bailout" could be on the way, and that human aging can be different in the future than it is today. Based on the future therapeutic potential of biogerontology, their paradigm-breaking proposals include sirtuin-modulating pills, new concepts for attacking cardiovascular disease and cancer, mitochondrial rejuvenation, stem cell therapies and regeneration, tissue reconstruction, telomere maintenance, prevention of immunosenescence, extracellular rejuvenation, artificial DNA repair, and full deployment of nanotechnology. The chapters range from Chapter 1, Bridges to Life by Ray Kurzweil and Terry Grossman to Chapter 23, Comprehensive Nanorobotic Control of Human Morbidity and Aging by Robert A. Freitas, Jr. The Future of Aging: Pathways to Human Life Extension Fahy, G.M.; West, M.D.; Coles, L.S.; Harris, S.B. (Eds.) 2010, Approx. 500 p., Hardcover ISBN: 978-90-481-3998-9 Available: May 4, 2010 Approx. $209.00 (Source: )

Sticky future for the spider suture

Sun, 01 Nov 2009 19:33:50 -0800

University of Wyoming scientists have identified the genes potentially involved in the glycoprotein-based ultra-strong glue that spiders use to trap their prey, raising the hope that similar substances could one day be synthezised to produce surgical adhesives. (Source: http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20427325.200-sticky-future-for-the-spider-suture.html)

Robot driving companion brings emotion to navigation

Sun, 01 Nov 2009 19:48:47 -0800

Audi, Nissan, and Pioneer are working on dashboard robotic devices that are sensitive to a driver's moods, behavior, and habits and can offer reminders (such as failure to buckle a seat belt) and information (such as GPS-based route suggestions). (Source: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18085-robot-driving-companion-brings-emotion-to-navigation.html)

The Future of Video Game Input: Muscle Sensors

Sun, 01 Nov 2009 21:09:07 -0800

A muscle-sensing system that can remotely control devices such as games and multi-touch surfaces has been developed by researchers at Microsoft, the University of Washington, and the University of Toronto. They system uses electromyography (EMG) sensors to detect muscle signals from the arm skin's surface, allowing researchers to build a gesture recognition library. (Source: http://www.livescience.com/technology/091029-ttr-muscle-sensing.html)

How Terahertz Waves Tear Apart DNA

Sun, 01 Nov 2009 21:24:47 -0800

Los Alamos National Laboratory scientists have found that nonlinear resonant effects allow terahertz (THz) waves to unzip double-stranded DNA, creating bubbles in the double strand that could significantly interfere with processes such as gene expression and DNA replication. THz scanners are beginning to be installed in airports and hospitals. Reference: DNA Breathing Dynamics in the Presence of a Terahertz Field (Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/24331/)

Nanoscale Drug Delivery Developed For Chemotherapy

Sun, 01 Nov 2009 21:58:33 -0800

Duke University bioengineers have developed a simple, inexpensive method for loading cancer drug payloads into nanoscale delivery vehicles and demonstrated in animal models that this delivery system can eliminate tumors after a single treatment. The system uses an E. coli bacterium that have been genetically altered to produce a chimeric polypeptide. When that molecule combines with a drug in a container, they self-assemble into a water-soluble nanoparticle of about 50 nanometers, making them ideal for cancer therapy. (Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091101132541.htm)

Driver-less car in high-speed rally assault

Sun, 01 Nov 2009 22:15:38 -0800

Stanford engineers are developing the first autonomous racing car to climb Pikes Peak, a challenging 12.4-mile ascent in the Rocky Mountains, at 130 mph, as a way to create and test safety systems they hope one day will be used in all vehicles. (Source: http://www.physorg.com/news176354395.html)

Video clip - Choosing optimism and innovation!

Thu, 29 Oct 2009 07:27:32 -0700

Here's another short video clip about the mindset that you can -- and should - carry forward as we continue to work our way through challenging economic times!

The new rules for the next economy .... and the role of IT

Fri, 23 Oct 2009 07:55:43 -0700

Over the next several weeks, I will be speaking at a series of events sponsored by Microsoft related to their Windows 7 launch. The audience includes key executives (CIO's, CFO's, CTO's and IT managers) from a wide variety of industries.

While much of the news coverage of Microsoft focuses around the "consumer" side of the Windows 7 launch, of equal significance is the release of several new server infrastructure upgrades that permit large and small business to take their business into the next level of operational innovation.

In Toronto the other day, Steve Ballmer was speaking to this aspect of innovation. I find that some media give the message short shift, because their planned story spin doesn't fit his message.

That's too bad, because the reality is that having an infrastructure that provides for a lot of business flexibility is going to be critical as we transition into the "next economy." Clearly, there's a lot of business turmoil out there, and organizations need to be able to change quickly to deal with new circumstances.

Given that, part of my my message at these events will focus on what I've come to call the "new rules for the next economy." What are those rules?

structure for growth: in many industries, the painful process of contraction is either over, or coming to an end. Once you've done the cost cutting, you only grow the profit line through new revenue. New revenue means new products and services; that comes from insight, collaboration, and thinking. Smart companies are ensuring they have a razor-sharp growth oriented culture, and technology enablers that help them get there.
focus on "chameleon revenue": in many industries, the revenue stream five years from now won't come from the products or services offered today. You have to keep a product/service innovation pipeline full in order to generate these new revenue sources -- and do it faster and better than before. Crayola has two supply chains: one for existing revenue, and one for innovation-based revenue. Interesting concept!
speed up: I spoke at a global travel conference a few weeks ago, and noted that 1/3 of all leisure travel is now last-minute; the average time frame for planning now down to just 15 days; 36% of last minute vacations are 3-4 nights; and 30% are 1-2 nights. Smart travel companies have in place an infrastructure that allows them to rapidly change their product lineup, marketing message, brand image, and the flexibility to communicate a new message to a massive client base quickly.
ingest new technology faster. There's going to be a huge amount of business model change as the tsunami of technology continues unabated. Anyone in retail will be hammered by the rapid transition to cellphone based payment technology. Winners will be able to transition at the speed of Silicon Valley -- with the result that leaders are those who will continue to find operational innovation in ways they hadn’t thought of before
shake up methodology: think Manufacturing 2.0, and a blog post I wrote here some time ago. The future is all about Honda's thinking: "how quickly can I change" is the defining question in terms of market flexibility. Manufacturing models are undergoing a huge shakeup, and those who transition them for maximum agility and flexibility will dominate the next marketplace.
be offensively defensive: no matter what industry you are in, there is someone out there who wants to mess up your business model. Before that happens, you should mess it up yourself, so that you better control the end game. Technology has and will play a huge role in business model transformation, and your infrastructure has to be up to the task.

Bottom line: business will continue to get faster, more complicated, and far more challenging.

Will you be able to ahead with a creaky, finger-in-the-dyke infrastructure?

"Thanks for changing lives! A note from the NRPA Congress..."

Mon, 19 Oct 2009 13:40:53 -0700

When you want off stage, you always wonder how you did!

Last week, I was the opening keynote speaker for an audience of up to 4,000 parks and recreation professionals, at the National Recreation and Parks Association annual conference in Salt Lake City.

Expectations were running high; many tweets were going out under the #nrpacongress tag, indicating enthusiasm for my upcoming talk.

I came off stage feeling like I did a real barnburner of a motivational talk, encouraging the crowd to adapt to the high rate of change that surrounds them.

It must have hit home with some: I received this wonderful email today.

Dear Jim,
I just wanted to let you know that in my 20 years of attending the NRPA Congress, no one has captivated me more than your keynote address. And, all during the week, when we talked about the Keynote, everyone agreed!
In fact, I presented a seminar "Creating the Wow---New Marketing Trends for Everyone", and mentioned a few of your insightful comments. It was amazing to see how everyone was captivated with your session. In fact, it is the only time I can remember, that people were upset that we were running late and you had to wrap up your talk rather quickly.
In addition, Vendors raved about you pressing attendees to visit the trade show, talk to peers, and see how technology is changing our profession. It was quite a Home Run!
We have a saying in our department, the 2008 NRPA Gold Medal Winner (Class II---100,001 to 250,000), which is, "Engage. Inspire. Change a Life Today!" I wanted to leave you with this... YOU Engaged. YOU Inspired. YOU changed lives that day! Thanks again for sharing your keen insight and talents with all of us!
Respectfully,
Rick Herold
Director of Parks and Recreation
City of Grand Prairie, Texas
www.GrandFunGP.com

Nice!

The strategic value of thought leadership speakers

Fri, 16 Oct 2009 07:34:20 -0700

Shaping Tomorrow is one of the world's leading trend watching services, observing on it's home page that:

"We help 13,284 people and organisations anticipate, and respond to, how we will live". Find opportunities for growth, discover new solutions, conduct risk and intelligence assessments, make strategic choices, plan and act on decisions, construct scenarios and join our global innovation and foresight network.

A tremendous number of global organizations use Shaping Tomorrow to track future trends. In line with that, the group has just launched a speakers bureau to provide its clients with the additional insight they need to deal with a high velocity economy.

I was asked to write an article for the launch of the site, and it is featured on the home page for Shaping Tomorrow Future Voices.

In "Our Brightest Minds -- and the Strategic Value of Thought Leadership Speakers", I make several observations that outline the role I play an increasing number of organizations today:

Steering an organization into the future is often akin to navigating a ship. You can only get so much momentum, and when it necessary to take a change in direction, it takes a lot of time for the turn to take effect.
That's where the role of a high profile futurist with a track record comes in. We help you to steer the ship.
I spend my time with a large number of global Fortune 1000 organizations, associations and government bodies. I'm often called in by a CEO or other member of senior management to achieve one particular goal: to help to place emphasis on the issues, challenges and opportunities that the organization faces in the future. In many cases, senior management knows what needs to be done; but being aware of the art of leadership, they also know that they must carefully lead their team through what are often, significant mindset changes.
The leadership team -- including you -- knows that they need to wake their people up, shake them out of their complacency, and give them a clear understanding that they had better start thinking about the future -- and fast -- in order to keep up with high velocity change. And perhaps, if they are lucky, stay one step ahead of everyone else.
That's what we do. We've chosen a career path that has us assisting organizations in making the transition into the future. I've been doing this for well over fifteen years.

You can read the full article online.

More information:

Read Our Brightest Minds -- and the Strategic Value of Thought Leadership Speakers

Upcoming keynote: The Future of Recreation

Fri, 09 Oct 2009 06:22:26 -0700

I head to Salt Lake City next week; I'll be the opening keynote speaker for the annual conference of the National Recreation and Parks Association.

GovPro News recently ran a press release on my keynote, commenting:

The recession has created an atmosphere of anxiety and uncertainty for many, and those who work in the parks and recreation field are not immune. With so many forces - the economy, politics, and social and leisure trends, for example - out of the control of parks and recreation professionals, thinking about the future could cause a few sleepless nights.
Futurist Jim Carroll has helped hundreds of organizations minimize their sleepless nights when preparing for the future, and he will discuss some of the upcoming challenges and opportunities in the field of parks and recreation when he delivers the keynote address at the National Recreation and Parks Association’s (NRPA) annual Congress and Exposition in Salt Lake City.

So what will I be talking about? The NRPA ran an interview with me in their September issue which is worth a read; I discuss some of the challenges and trends that we face in terms of the future of parks and recreation, and the innovative mindsets that will help folks cope with a future which is faster, more complex, and certainly full of opportunity.

As NRPA Chief Executive Officer Barbara Tulipane commented in the GovPro release: "In these difficult economic times, it will be refreshing and instructive to learn from one of the truly great minds in strategic planning.... Attendees will leave the conference well-armed with a variety of tools and strategies to help them successfully confront the challenges of the coming year."

More information:

Read NRPA article: What the Future Holds
visit 2009 NRPA Congress and Exposition Web site
Read 2009 NRPA conference casts an eye to the future

Use foresight to avoid losing your way

Fri, 09 Oct 2009 08:11:43 -0700

It’s too easy to swap your organization’s true mission for single-mindedness about preserving and defending the institution as an institution. The clear and broad view you get with foresight can help you avoid that.

Kevin Carey, policy director of Education Sector, an independent think tank in Washington, published an essay, “The ‘Veritas’ About Harvard” in the October 2, 2009 Chronicle of Higher Education. {http://chronicle.com/article/Think-Tank-The-Veritas/48590/} In it, he offers a fierce critique of Harvard. He accuses the University of having invested part of its enormous endowment (which is tens of billions of dollars) merely in the apparatus of the institution-staff and buildings, rather than in extending Harvard’s quality education to more students. What Harvard did with its money, in his view, is build a lot of new, glossy buildings and grow its staff, which would seemingly make it able to raise the number of undergraduates. But it did not.

Carey makes the point that: "money is the great leveler: It makes even the smartest people in the world act stupidly." What was stupid about Harvard’s investments? They invested to preserve the institution, rather than further its mission. Harvard invested to extend its prestige and exclusivity, and the privileges of its elite faculty and leadership, rather than to extend education to more students. Carey notes: “An institution truly dedicated to teaching students has natural limits on how much money it needs. At some point, the land and space and professors suffice.”

This harsh critique leveled at Harvard suggests a wider lesson that can be critical to almost any institution as it builds toward its future. Institutions too easily take a single-minded continue-at-all-costs view that can blind their leaders to their true or original purposes. The narrowness may not be intentional, but it’s powerful and can destroy what matters most. I don’t suggest that institutions give up all aspirations of growth and financial security, just that they reflect with some care on what they are doing, and step back and take a long-term view.

It’s reasonable to argue, and some of the online commenters on the Carey piece do, that Harvard is a private institution that can do whatever it wants. That’s true, but I’ll bet overall it is not the intention of Harvard to merely build enormous wealth and extend its holdings in Cambridge. I’ll bet the University still wants to be a premier educational institution and to make a difference in the world. It’s the demanding financial beast that Harvard became that threatens to pull it away from its true mission:

“Harvard College adheres to the purposes for which the Charter of 1650 was granted: ‘The advancement of all good literature, arts, and sciences; the advancement and education of youth in all manner of good literature, arts, and sciences; and all other necessary provisions that may conduce to the education of the … youth of this country….’ In brief: Harvard strives to create knowledge, to open the minds of students to that knowledge, and to enable students to take best advantage of their educational opportunities.”

How does foresight help? If you take a deeper look into the future, it is often easier to see past the immediate needs of the institution, namely money: this quarter’s revenues or next year’s budget. You can focus more clearly on the growth and development of the organization in its service to its mission, not just its financial survival. Certainly this is true for non-profits that clearly don’t exist just to build up capital and income streams. Of course some for-profit companies really do exist to build themselves up financially. But even for many a for-profit company—it’s not size for size’ sake, nor revenue for revenue’s sake that is the reason to exist. Greater profits might come from scaling down.

Surely most institutions don’t want to lose sight of their missions, and fall into a pattern of preserving the beast at all costs. And I don’t think Harvard does either.

A special thanks to Ellen Miller a friend a colleague of my wife at Stonebridge Associates for pointing me to the Carey essay. I always learn something new from Ellen.

Image: apesara, via Flickr, cc license

Article : The Future of Energy

Thu, 01 Oct 2009 04:38:08 -0700

There's no doubt that one of the biggest issues facing the planet and its inhabitants in the coming decades is how we treat the dual challenges of energy and the environment. For years, I've been advising my clients about one of the biggest trends related to these two issues: the rapid emergence of an intelligent energy infrastructure. It's happening now - all around you - and the implications are pretty huge in terms of economic growth. The big question is, what role can accountants play as this infrastructure builds?

From a high level, the trend unfolding is that we will be able to more directly and individually control how we use energy resources, giving each of us ways to reduce our own environmental footprint.

We're seeing small steps already today: for example, I just bought the new IP Thermostat app for my iPhone; it provides instant access to the two Internet-enabled Proliphix thermostats in my home and ski chalet/cottage. (I could link to my thermostats before via a web page, but IP Thermostat makes it seamless and fast.) The technology allows me to actively manage my energy consumption and better manage my environmental footprint. A world in which hundreds of millions of people are doing the same thing would put a serious dent into heating and air-conditioning usage.

Such devices are just a small example of a number of major trends that will lead to more of this type of connectivity becoming mainstream. For example, major industrial players are adding intelligence to the next generation of commercial, industrial and residential heating, ventilation and air-conditioning equipment, to allow for remote monitoring, management and rapid response to out-of-norm operations.

The advent of the "smart grid" - an electrical system that operates on a more efficient, cost-effective basis through the use of information technology - is another example. It's not all hype; Cisco recently suggested that the connectivity component of energy infrastructure will be worth more than US$100 billion over five years. That’s some serious spending.

And if we consider the new role of analytics, in that such connectivity will allow consumers and users to better understand their usage, and allow more intelligent demand.

The Positive Energy initiative, for example, encourages hydro utilities to send out electrical bills that compare your usage to that of your neighbours. If you're efficient, you get some smiley faces on your bill. If not, you get some images that would encourage you to do better. It’s a unique, simple idea, and yet it provides a glimpse into where we can go in the future if we allow people to take a more analytical, deeper view of how they use energy, and hence, impact the environment.

Imagine that as we build this intelligent, connected energy system we can provide tools allowing consumers to further manage their household energy use. For example, software tools could allow them to query an energy provider for details on how well their fridge was operating compared to neighbourhood norms, how much they could save by purchasing a more efficient microwave, or how much money they are losing by postponing that oil change on their 10-year-old hyper-connected car.

We know that everything around us is beginning to plug into the cloud.

There might be unique opportunities to consider how we can maximize the potential for insight as this occurs.

Falling in Love with Technology

John Renesch — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 06:09:06 -0700

Have you noticed how much people love their new iPhones? Maybe you are one of them. People I know who have them talk about their new acquisitions like I remember talking about a new girlfriend. They act like they love them! Infatuated even!

While no one can contest the enormous attraction people have for technology with all its gimmickry and dazzling new magic tricks, it warrants taking a look at what it is exactly that draws us to it. I look back at my life and recall “falling in love” several times in my early years only to discover later on, and usually after some disappointment and pain, that it wasn’t really love but was closer to obsession.

Why do we become enamored of things, particularly technological gadgetry? The most rational reason I can think of is it allows us to do more with less, and makes our lives easier. This is reminiscent of farmers giving up their horse-drawn plows and buying tractors and hay bailers in the early 20^th Century, or taking the train across the prairies rather than riding for weeks on end by horseback.

Another reason we are attracted to new things like technology is that we feel “in the know” – on the leading edge, “with it,” cool and perhaps, admired by our peers. I recall this in my days as a teenager and young adult. It was “cool” to have certain cars, certain tools and certain technologies, like a stereo (yes, I was a teenager when stereophonic phonographs came out and it was really awesome to have that technology in the 1950s).

Then there’s the obsession aspect: we can become obsessed with new things that address certain pathological needs we may have. These are usually outside our awareness or consciousness. This could include anything that we can identify with that makes us feel better about ourselves, or a distraction that allows us to escape our reality and find a new place to become engaged, even entranced. I see this entrancement as

iPhone

users rush to find an answer to something being discussed whipping them out of their holsters faster than a Western gunfighter.

And, by the way, they just left our conversation which is now on hold until the “fast gun” returns to the conversation after his / her immersion into their handheld libraries.

I had lunch with a friend the other day and she told me how she can get lost in social networking and other Internet applications. Hours go by without her being aware of the time. She seems to know the difference between obsession and mere intense engagement and was concerned that she was feeling more obsessed than engaged, as if it she were taking an addictive drug.

Are we looking for tools that make our lives easier like farmers in the early 1900s or are we seeking escape? There were predictions in the 1960s that computers would make the eight hour work day obsolete, that the leisure industry would flourish. We now work more hours than we did then, on average. We are more stressed, busier and take less down time than almost any other nation. And we have technological marvels at our disposal to do three times the work we did a generation or two ago. So, it seems to me, there is a question: If we have the technology to produce 300% more why are we busier, more stressed and taking less leisure time?

What do you think? Why do you think this upside down condition has persisted throughout the U.S. and much of the rest of the so-called developed world? Is our busyness a cover for our misery? Is our obsession filling some hole in our souls? Your comments are most welcome.

For more about John, his writings and his work, see his website.

Insight on deep, transformation change - and the "next economy"

Mon, 28 Sep 2009 07:56:28 -0700

Next week, I'll be in Jacksonville, as the lunch time keynote speaker for the annual meeting of the Materials Handling Association of America. We'll have about 300 executives in the room, from a broad cross section of North American industry.

My topic? "Moving Beyond the Meltdown: Aligning Yourself for Growth Through Innovation".

In the last twelve months, I've had a unique first hand opportunity to witness what's happening on the ground throughout corporate North America as companies have grappled with the recession. Throughout this time, I've been fortunate enough to speak at a wide variety of leadership meetings, management get-togethers and other corporate events for a fascinating list of Fortune 500 organizations, as well as many prestigious national associations.

And in my own small way, I've been busy helping people to understand what they need to do to innovate their way into the "next economy." That's because there are an increasing number of CEO's or other members of senior management who are bringing me in order to help place emphasis on their message of the urgency of change.

What's clear is that we are in the midst of a pretty significant economic transformation. As Mick Fleming at the American Chamber of Commerce put it recently: "It's going to be this move from a bad economy, to the next economy."

What is the shape of that next economy? The scope of the change can be seen in the types of deep, transformational change that is underway in many an industry. Consider manufacturing - clearly, we're moving from a world of mass production, to mass customization and agility-based manufacturing. I often use the example of Honda, as noted in a Bloomberg news article back in 2008:

"Honda's assembly lines can switch models in as little as 10 days ..... by contrast, it could take months for most rivals to make the same change."

Clearly, the Detroit based old manufacturing business model was seriously and deeply flawed. The newer model, based on agility and flexibility is the model that will take may manufacturers into the future.

There's a similar fundamental transformation underway in many other industries -- and to understand the link between future trends and innovation, you must get into that mindset. Take health care -- 20 years from now, it will look nothing like it does today, as we move to a world of preventative medicine.

And what's really happening with the global economy are a number of trends that point to growth:

There are a tremendous number of new companies and new industries being built around the high velocity of ideas that surround us - which is increasing the pace of business startups;
New ideas continue to be explored, markets grow, and industries emerge as rapid innovation occurs in health care, agriculture and countless other fields. It's all about rapid science today -- and exponential knowledge growth leading to faster discovery of the "next thing"
Business model innovation continues unabated : I'm seeing revolutionary trends with mobile text message based banking systems, for example
Small organizations continue to have the advantage of capitalizing on opportunity quicker; today, it's all about speed, and these are the innovators who often win in big markets. Just look at what's going on in pharmaceutical research, where the majority of new discoveries are happening in small labs

It's easy during a time of economic volatility to lose sight of where the global economy is really headed. Yet while stock markets might rock, innovation thrives.

What's my role? In each and every case, the individuals who have engaged me know that their industry and the world they live in is set for deep, systemic, transformational change. They have a compelling sense of urgency. They know that maybe the rest of their team does not share the sentiment; they're suffering from organizational sclerosis; their ability to understand the future is clogged up by todays' short term focus.

Leaders today know that they need to wake their people up, shake them out of their complacency, and give them a clear understanding that they had better start thinking about the future -- and fast -- in order to keep up with high velocity change.

And perhaps, if they are lucky, stay one step ahead of everyone else.

More information:

Material Handling Association of America - 2009 annual conference
Blog post: Are you watching the major transformations, or just the piddly stuff?

Take a walk in their shoes

Fri, 25 Sep 2009 04:52:39 -0700

A key to success in communicating about change is to know as much as you can about what others are feeling and thinking. So take a walk in their shoes.

There’s probably a gap between your views and what’s on the minds of the people you are trying to reach. What matters to you may not matter to them, and how they think about things is probably not how you think about things. So you have to try to bridge that gap, and get through to people on their terms.

It takes a fight with yourself to keep that fixed in your mind as you prepare and as you communicate. It helps if you are empathetic by nature. If so, channel that and make sure you get the most out of your natural tendency. If not, you will have to try to bridge this gap intellectually, by preparation and by keeping open the question on behalf of others, “what’s in it for me?” Ask that question, and answer it honestly, not from your point of view, but from the point of view of others who are key stakeholders.

It may be that your instinct in hearing about others’ reactions to things is to think, at worst: “those idiots!” and at best: “those poor, misguided souls.” Neither thought helps the cause of getting ideas about change through to people. Instead, you have to take at face value—as a fact—whatever reaction people have. You have to work with that, not deny it or argue with it. It is part of the system you are dealing with, you won’t change it by dismissing it, and probably won’t by fighting against it. You need to accommodate it.

Also, as I’ve written in earlier posts, you won’t always change people’s minds with a technical, factual argument. You often have to find an argument that works for them, not for you, and it may be an emotional one. Chances are, you have a technical knowledge-base on the question at hand, but don’t assume your knowledge will be effective in changing people’s minds. What’s in their hearts? What are their hopes and fears? Find out! You can be much more effective if you know what you can about that.

See also “Getting to know the anti-you” on finding people who are distinctly different from you that can help you take a fresh perspective.

Also, my Leading Futurists LLC colleague Jennifer Jarratt and I co-authored an essay recently on "Reframing the Future" that elaborates on the importance of understanding what is in people’s minds as you try to get them to explore the future.

Image: Sabrina Campagna, cc license, via Flickr

Twitter, and environmental scanning

Fri, 18 Sep 2009 06:48:46 -0700

Twitter (www.twitter.com) is not for everyone. It involves your time and attention, regularly, though in very small portions. Your impression of Twitter may be that it’s a place where someone you care only a little about, or not at all, will update you on the fascinating minutia of his/her daily life: "Eating a bagel at Panera," or, "Wishing Friday Night Lights was back on." But you don’t have to use it that way.

If you consider Twitter’s value for environmental scanning, you might find it worth a second look. For many people, Twitter has become an information sharing place, not information about their daily minutia, but information important to them professionally.

Consider two parts of this. First, Twitter, used for by following a set of people who share useful things, is an environmental scanning channel. Not only can you tap into thousands of people who do free work for you by following all sorts of developments, news, and events, and sharing web links about them, those people also often add their interpretations to the things they share.

Second, your use of Twitter can represent a first step in your interpretation of things you find. As you "pay it forward," you can and you should add your brief thought to the link you share. Doing that, you have begun to analyze and interpret information. You have made it meaningful for yourself and whomever is following your Tweets. But it can be to your benefit most of all. Most of us see far too much information, every day, without taking the time to find and add meaning to it–meaning for us. Having people following what you post adds a little incentive to do this regular, small task. On Twitter, too, there is plenty of cooperation, sharing, and reciprocation.

You don’t need Twitter to do this, of course. But you may find that using it adds a bit of discipline to your environmental scanning and, if you can imagine, makes you more efficient. What looks like a trivial time-waster may be a time-saver and may make a difference in keeping a foresight channel open and flowing in your life.

I’ve shared other thoughts on environmental scanning here. See, for comparison, my thoughts on using del.icio.us tagging for scanning and for adding value to the information you discover.

A Lesson from the Meltdown

John Renesch — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 03:01:30 -0700

The crash of 2008 offers many lessons most of which we will probably miss. Hopefully, we will learn a few things so this deep and ongoing pain and suffering doesn’t have to be endured by those who follow us. For the purpose of this month’s blog, I wish to focus on just one lesson that I am not hearing much about.

When disasters occur we tend to seek out the culprit or culprits responsible for them and blame it all on them. Disasters can result when one person or one small group of people screw up really badly and act less than honorably.

A new book from the Collective Wisdom Initiative is being published later in the Fall. I have had the privilege to preview it knowing several of the authors. One of the subjects the book covers is “collective folly” pointing to the huge mistakes groups and societies can make when the consensus is wrong or misguided. Similar to “groupthink,” there develops a consensus reality that isn’t based in good sense even though the group agrees to it.

The lesson from the meltdown I’m addressing here is the collective folly that resulted from colossal numbers of people making mistakes, some more egregious than others, but almost everyone involved in capital markets had some role in this historic disaster: people who were eager to buy a home they couldn’t afford, the brokers who allowed false credit applications, every citizen who relied on credit instead of savings and was in debt over his/her head. It includes the legislators who passed bad laws or repealed good ones. Consumers who continued buying gas guzzlers contributed to this meltdown. The list includes the accountants and financial engineers who looked the other way trading their souls for job security. The “collective” includes the bean counters who worked for the rating agencies which, in turn, “followed orders” and understated the risk of complex securities and synthetic financial constructs no one really understood. And, yes, it certainly includes the greedy Wall Street shysters who are taking most of our blame, and rightly so. But not all the fault lies with them. Many of us contributed to this collective folly.

Just how many have been complicit is hard to say but it is safe to estimate it would number in the hundreds of millions, possibly billions, who had something to do with this “perfect storm” blowing up in our faces. Unfortunately, the people having the least to do with this disaster will most likely suffer the most. Billions of people at the lower end of the wealth ladder, making only pennies a day, are the true innocents in this global crisis.

When we look the other way while something wrong is happening, fail to challenge a decision we think is bad, condone others’ behavior with our silence, abandon rudimentary prudence to live beyond our means, misrepresent facts on a loan application, we are complicit in the outcome. When we rationalize our behavior even when we know it is contributing to an unsustainable way of life, we are out of integrity with ourselves.

A few months ago I asked two questions of the group I was addressing. “What part did you play in bringing about this crash?” After people pondered that for a while and I could see the expressions of recognition on their faces, I asked my second question. “What are you still doing that will prevent the system from changing?”

It is time for deep soul searching and lifestyle changes that start us along our way toward collective wisdom and it is time to abandon the path of collective folly. This is a crisis of collective conscience, a global integrity crisis, and as in all crises, we have an opportunity to learn and grow from it.

So here is the lesson we can all learn: Many people acting even slightly dishonorably can bring about just as horrendous an outcome as a few hard case evil doers.

Turn it upside down and see what you see

Wed, 26 Aug 2009 06:13:44 -0700

“Sheriff without a gun” (Andy Taylor, Mayberry)

“What if restaurants didn’t cook and serve you food?”

Merce Cunningham: the dance and the music don’t have to match up

What if cars didn’t need drivers?

These are ideas about a radical change in something familiar. We can use thinking like this to try out new ideas without being hindered by the established ways we do things. The ideas get us past the system as we know it, and let us think differently, and that’s what we need to do in exploring the future.

More often than not, a paradigm-busting idea is the pathway to a new business model, or to some breakthrough that moves us to a new place in our thinking. The radical thought doesn’t have to be the ultimate future reality, but it helps us get our thinking going. So maybe the car won’t be driverless anytime soon, but what if it could parallel park automatically for you?

Creative thinking can be about doing this instinctively—having the knack for looking at things differently. If you are like that in your creative style, lucky you! But even if you are not, it can make a difference to your work, your thinking if you let some “upside down” ideas bubble up. You may need to force the thoughts in a little bit, but then you should be able to explore what is around you with fresh eyes, and perhaps make some breakthroughs of your own.

The tools of creative brainstorming offer lots of ways to encourage, even force new thinking. You can, and should reach for them if you or your group has trouble letting go of conventional thinking. It can be as easy as just turning the view upside down (see map), or disconnecting things that are always connected (car and driver). You can do this in a simple "what if" conversation.

Why consider this in relation to foresight? In exploring the future we have much the same problem as any creative need: we tend to get stuck thinking along the same old lines, assuming much or all of what’s in front of us will be in tact in the future. It won’t.

You can break down the stuck thinking that people have about their future, and get everyone to try out some distinctly new ideas. That can lead to breakthroughs: business or service ideas, products, and so on. And it certainly helps people get ready for change that may be coming.

Map: commons.wikimedia.org

The future of food security: UK government to release strategy

Mon, 10 Aug 2009 03:07:06 -0700

The UK government will publish information on it’s food strategy later today and this morning’s BBC Radio 4 Today programme offered a number of comments on the issues of food security and the future of food production in anticipation of the report. This programme can be re-played via the BBC i-player (follow the specific timings and [...]

Weak Signals: Individual agents & systemic simulation

Fri, 07 Aug 2009 05:35:55 -0700

A couple of items I’d consider weak or emergent signals in the current online environment. 1 – Individual agents The idea of software automation (bots) is nothing new – especially for companies trading via proprietary platforms or market-portals in the financial sector – nor is the idea that they’ll respond dynamically depending on combinations derived from both [...]

Weak Signals: do they display emergence?

Fri, 07 Aug 2009 10:18:42 -0700

Some quick thoughts following a tweet from Frank Spencer highlighting the characteristics of emergence – having looked at the idea of weak signals earlier in the day I wondered whether we could actually scan for signals with the following elements of emergence in mind: Local – does each signal represent a small, independent, bottom-up initiative? Replication – [...]

Technology trends: a pre-cluster overview

Tue, 04 Aug 2009 08:45:05 -0700

Our trend ‘universe’ after a recent analysis session, now to cluster …

Riding the Edge: Living With Creative Tension

John Renesch — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 04:42:38 -0700

When one holds a vision that stretches the mind and convention, when one dreams of realities that may seem like pure folly to the popular consensus, when one strives to reveal a truth that hasn't been seen by the masses, one becomes accustomed to being different. One also becomes accustomed to living a life with a certain amount of tension - tension between what is envisioned and what currently exists. Robert Fritz, author of The Path of Least Resistance, has described this differential as "structural tension." Peter Senge, author of The Fifth Discipline, referenced Fritz's model, making it more widely known as "creative tension."

Those who can live in this tension and hold their vision for what they see as achievable not only become accustomed to being different but they also become accustomed to this tension. Senge once told me he thought personal mastery was achieved when people could hold this tension without seeking relief from it. Most people tend to succumb to the desire to reconcile this tension and get more comfortable. They relieve it by either lowering their vision and their expectancy for their desired future or by overstating the present reality, making it seem better than it is. Often worse; they give up on their vision but start acting as if they still embody it. This often leads to them martyring themselves – taking consolations in the image they think they are projecting rather than making the kind of difference they claim they want.

The envisioned future can be a quality of life for oneself or one’s loved ones, business success, or even a quality in the world one wants to see. It helps if the envisioned reality is more expectancy rather than specific expectations. Be somewhat flexible in the form of your envisioned reality. When assessing the existing reality, exploring what you want to see changed, be sure to tell the absolute truth without exaggeration so the condition is portrayed accurately. Here’s the graphic I used in Getting to the Better Future, my latest book:

Scientists who discovered major breakthroughs in their fields are examples of such visionaries who mastered the ability to function in this creative tension. Great artists, composers and other creative people with visions that soared beyond the conventional are also examples of people who can function effectively with this tension in their lives.

Those who have mastered this are able to hold it as a part of everyday life, sometimes over decades of time. They don't give up or become resigned about any lack of “progress” from the current reality to the envisioned one. It doesn’t mean those who live here don’t get discouraged or never experience despair, loss, grief or sadness. The difference is they don’t let these feelings stop them. They use them to energize their intentionality and their vision.

Do you know any of these people, people who have been holding the creative tension for years and years, feeling alive and empowered, continuing to hold their visions for a better life or a better world? Do you want that ability yourself? Try it out. You may find you can hold the tension between what you want to see happen and what is presently so far better than you think. It certainly won’t hurt to try.

Darwinian Futures? — Why we should leave emotions in when exploring the future

Tue, 28 Jul 2009 06:20:49 -0700

“Why should a corporation have to survive?”

“Why not let it fail? Creative destruction is good.”

These are statements that it is easy to make intellectually, but hard to take personally, if you are involved with a company as an employee or shareholder, or just as a concerned member of the community.

The world and human society in it are great big, interlocked systems that evolve and change no matter what we do. Often in discussing the future, people find themselves reflecting on how those systems can “take care of themselves.” For example, overpopulation leads to famine, which leads to a loss of population. Or, market forces will sort out the weak from the strong companies.

These ideas are valid and interesting, but they may be conversation stoppers at best, and de-motivators, more likely. When you want to explore potential futures and what they mean to an organization, a community, and so on, you need to keep the focus on what you and others who are stakeholders in a system can control or influence. There is almost no point in studying a system if you don’t really care what happens to it.

Also, the time horizon of a “self-correcting” system is not likely the ideal time horizon for the people who are stakeholders in a system. Sure, Detroit’s economy could recover as new industries grow there. We can say that the massive loss of jobs and failure of businesses in Michigan, centered on the automobile industry, is an inevitable, cyclical re-balancing of part of American industry. New industries will rise up to take the place of the lost ones, and will create new jobs. But naturally for the people who have lost their jobs, things are not going to re-balance quickly enough to pay a mortgage or send a child to college. They care about conditions in Detroit, right now, and what to do about them, right now.

What this tells us is that most of the time working with people to explore the future, we have to take a view as a participant in the system that we’re exploring. We can’t leave passion out of it, and the people we want to engage in exploring the future certainly won’t. Even if you succeed engage people intellectually in some “what-ifs” that ignore the needs and emotions of people involved, ultimately they won’t be successful in moving to new, positive thinking about what they will do next. We have to care about the future to help make it the way we want it.

Image: lightmatter, via Flickr, cc license

Ned lacks foresight

Wed, 22 Jul 2009 06:30:02 -0700

Our cat, Ned, is charming and delightful, but not the most thoughtful creature. His sister, Minnie, is the brains of the outfit. Here is Ned, showing a distinct lack of foresight. What if someone sits in the rocker, and rocks? Minnie would have thought through the long-term implications of having a paw under the runner.

Image: John Mahaffie

Technology Drivers: C-I-C (Context, Informatics, Cognition)

Tue, 14 Jul 2009 06:34:34 -0700

Initial high-level brainstorm over… more to come.

A trend toward corporate honesty

Sat, 11 Jul 2009 06:08:45 -0700

In the interest of science, I bought and ate (but first studied and photographed) a dark chocolate Snickers bar the other day. The candy bar caught my eye in Gerald’s G & E Grocery, in Ocean View, Delaware. What stood out was a bright green shield-shape on the front (see photo) that announced unequivocally that the bar included 240 calories, or 12% of my daily intake of calories. That struck me as an almost-recklessly honest bit of package labeling. This is an interesting trend, and perhaps inevitable—food companies are likely to find honesty is best in a world where almost anyone can get almost any information.

David Kessler, former head of the US Food and Drug Administration, recently marveled at the Snickers Bar saying that it is: “extraordinarily well engineered,” as a compact confection of sugar, fat, and salt that dissolves richly in your mouth as you chew.{Link}. He didn’t really mean to compliment the makers of the Snickers bar.

I grew up on Snickers, and have always eaten them under the “don’t ask, don’t tell” principle, wherein I work to not scrutinize the nutrition labeling. Now the makers of Snickers (Masterfoods, a part of Mars Inc.) have made it no longer possible for me to ignore the truth. That’s real honesty, and good for them doing it.

What Snickers has done is part of a broad trend to greater attention to health and nutrition. More producers are labeling their products for nutrition, more accurately. They are responding to regulatory requirements but are also acting voluntarily. In looking into this I foundthat Mars has launched Mars Healthy Living (www.marshealthyliving.com) to educate consumers on nutrition, including for its products. It has designed its own, very-visible GDA (guideline daily amount) label for its products, and it certainly caught my eye. Their site says “All Mars Snack and food brands, including Skittles, M&Ms, Snickers and Uncle Ben’s will carry GDA labels by the end of 2010.”

What other big producers will follow? It will be interesting to see.

The future of demographic change: an approaching ‘crunch’?

Wed, 08 Jul 2009 02:11:07 -0700

How will increasing population levels effect the economic, political and military balance of power across the globe and – specifically – what are the likely affects of such trends on both Britain and Europe? That’s the question addressed by Richard Ehrman in his new publication The Power of Numbers published this week by the Policy Exchange [...]

The future of food security: no longer a soft policy issue

Tue, 07 Jul 2009 05:43:37 -0700

The trend of ‘rich nations’ seeking to buy land in ‘poor nations’ for the purposes of creating hedging mechanisms against potential food price rises as well as a means of enhancing their food security continues, but a key characteristic of the current trend is raising wider concern. As a recent Guardian article highlights, the pace of [...]

Central banks: four economic scenarios

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 01:39:04 -0700

In a short scenario planning exercise, the Financial Times recently considered the potential impacts on the business strategy and strategic planning of two key transatlantic institutions as they work within an environment characterised by further uncertainty and subject to changeable economic forecasts & market trends. Titled “In search of the exit“, the article compares the intent [...]

More About Lobbying; Lessons from NASCAR

John Renesch — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 01:04:13 -0700

Following last month’s blog on the similarity between U.S. lobbying and what often passes for bribery elsewhere, I was imagining how truly transparent sponsorship of elected officials would look. Given my early life passion for motorsports and my occasional viewing of an auto race, it occurred to me that perhaps our Washington legislators could take some cues from professional race car drivers.

What you say? How did you make that jump? Well, rather easily really.

Take as an example NASCAR, which has grown phenomenally in popularity around the world in recent years. The drivers and pit crew members willingly advertise their sponsors’ brands and products on their uniforms, hats, decalcomania on their cars and openly plug them during interviews. Everyone knows the Ford drivers will promote Ford, the Miller Lite team will promote their sponsor’s beer, and the Office Depot sponsored teams will promote the chain of retail stores. It’s transparent and obvious.

How would that look in Washington? What if each politician was clearly beholden to their sponsors, the organizations and brands that have influenced their decisions? What if this was so transparent that when a press conference or interview was held the public would know who contributed to their campaign or who lobbied for the legislation the politico was authoring or endorsing at the time. What if politicians wore jackets covered with their sponsors’ logos like racer Tony Stewart above?

After all, how many citizens sit watching television in the evening with a handy directory of which politicians are beholden to what special interests, be they AARP, NRA, the oil lobby or the automobile industry? They sit there passively taking in the interview or press conferences unaware of who is sponsoring the politician’s comments. Until we do something about influence peddling in politics we will indeed get the legislators we deserve.

Final note: In an uncanny comparison of which party's politicians are invested in what stocks, take a look at this graphic just published by Miller-McCune magazine: http://www.miller-mccune.com/politics/partisan-portfolios-1297. The first impression one gets is the incredulous comparisons, where politicians from one party invest heavily in one type of stock the other side is largely invested in different kinds of companies. And note which party is invested in which kind of companies. Worth a look, really!

Coral Cross: Hawaii Research Centre for Future Studies launch new game

Wed, 24 Jun 2009 03:43:10 -0700

Coral Cross has just launched. Produced by the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies (HRCFS), the project is described as an ‘emergent reality game’ based on the premise that H1N1 ’swine flu’ will continue to move across the globe. The aim of the game – which is open to all – is to see if participants [...]

Exploring Futures Methods: Seminar round-up

Tue, 23 Jun 2009 05:18:52 -0700

After yesterday’s excellent and thought-provoking event, I’ve indexed each individual live blogging summary below: Welcome & an overview of futures research methodology The deployment of futures tools in the policy-making context Using participatory scenario techniques to deal with uncertainty Roads less travelled: different methods, different outcomes Panel discussion on futures methods: opportunities and new directions

Lobbying in the U.S.: Why Not Call It Bribery?

John Renesch — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 02:09:10 -0700

The huge bailouts taxpayers have generously given to the U.S. banking industry are probably in part due to very powerful lobbying. Our federal legislators are the targets of the most powerful lobby on Capitol Hill. As a recent blog by a constituent of Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois states, “they own the place.”

A major factor in the meltdown of Wall Street was due to the mixing of risky speculative investing with what used to be seen as conservative local banking. This occurred in 1999 when the post-Great Depression regulations that kept these two very different cultures separate was repealed. It took only nine years for the resultant bubble to blow up. A bubble with which we infected the entire world! Here again we have the most powerful lobby in Washington calling the shots.

When powerful lobbies are allowed to have so much influence on legislators and participate in writing the rules that favor their industries or enterprises there is a major blurring of the boundaries between being influential or informative and corrupting lawmakers to tilt the playing field in their favor. We’ve all heard stories of widespread bribery in other countries. Some of you may have firsthand knowledge of this cost of doing business in countries where bribery is commonly practiced.

So what is the difference between paying an official to obtain a favor and contributing to a campaign, helping to write favorable legislation or encouraging preferential treatment under the already-skewed laws to gain similar favors? Here’s a portion of the concluding remarks of a paper published by Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University which attempts to address this question:

Corruption and lobbying are to some extent substitutes. Through lobbying a firm may be able to change existing rules to the firm’s advantage. Through bribery a firm may get the bureaucrat to bend the rules and thus avoid the full cost of a policy. We believe that one important difference between these two strategies is that the effect of lobbying is more permanent than bribing, simply because the bure[au]crat cannot commit to not ask for bribes in future periods. Based on this simple assumption, we find that the firms prefer bribing to lobbying early in the development process. At later stages, when firms have invested more, their bargaining power relative to the bureaucrat is smaller and the bribes therefore larger. Then, the firms are more likely to lobby the government.

Before anyone starts accusing me of being an anti-capitalist or left wing, I’m not simply pointing to corporate lobbying but all lobbying. Between 1998 and 2008, the number of registered lobbyists grew from 10,692 to 15,287, nearly a 50% increase in just ten years! This is a huge disparity when you realize they are all trying to get their way from only 535 federal legislators.

Lobbyists’ spending increased during that same ten-year period from $1.44 billion to $3.27 billion – way more than double! (see http://www.opensecrets.org/lobbyists/). One of the biggest annual jumps in the lobbyist population – a whopping 30 % - was between 1998 and 1999 when the banking regulations were repealed. Could these two events be related?

Of course, the lobbyists aren’t entirely to blame. They needed the votes of the legislators to repeal regulations and fund the bailouts nine years later. Legislators, under huge pressure to comply with lobbyists’ influence, still bear personal responsibility for their actions, and this includes both parties. But this system is flawed and now we know it was fatally flawed for at least nine years, a flaw which unfortunately has hurt the taxpayer much more than those responsible.

I am hopeful that our legislators are considering regulating those who have proven untrustworthy of our blind faith in their ability to police themselves, treating the public trust with all the recklessness of Dodge City/anything goes types of wealth tilting ploys. The practices of these lobbyists who “own the place,” as well as the behavior of the legislators who are subject to their influence peddling, need to be closely examined, regulated and responsibly overseen considerably more than in past years. And this could and perhaps should include criminalizing those activities that more closely resemble bribery.

The only reason thousands of people aren’t in jail today due to this global tragedy – this 21^st Century Great Recession which is causing countless pain and suffering around the world - is that the laws allowed this sort of thing to happen. And who saw to it that these laws were so relaxed that everyone complicit is not now doing jail time? The most powerful lobby in Washington, that’s who. When it is bribery let’s call it that, even if it has been “legalized.” There’s no need to continue putting up with this nonsense.

The Power of the Nod

John Renesch — Sun, 03 May 2009 02:34:15 -0700

Have you ever noticed how people nod in agreement so spontaneously with immediacy long before they formulate an opinion or critique of what they were listening to? As a keynote speaker, the nods I see in the audience tell me volumes more than what people may say to me afterward or write in their evaluations of my talk. Being so spontaneous, the nod is a form of body language that demonstrates direct response without having taken the path through the mind with all its filters of political correctness, image projection, peer approval and polished wording which results in the prepared critique.

I remember a talk I gave on organizational systems change some years ago in Colorado to a group consisting mostly of organizational consultants. I asked them if they had the experience of doing some large scale change work inside a company, getting a very positive endorsement from the person in the company who hired them and being well paid for their work. They leave taking great pride in their contribution to the company and very hopeful the new changes will become permanently integrated into the company culture.

Then I asked them if they ever had cause to revisit the company, only to discover the person who hired them previously was no longer there, and noticed the culture was exactly as it had been before their previous engagement. Lots of nods! Things had reverted to the old ways and hadn’t changed a bit!

Finally I asked if, after this experience, they seriously doubted their work made any difference and how that made them feel.

I was amazed at how many heads were nodding even before I finished my query, as if they knew where I was going ahead of time. I got the distinct impression they had made this inquiry on their own and the experience of disappointment was quite common.

Going by the immediacy of assenting nods as I was making my inquiries, the experience was not only very common it was also disheartening to these people because they wanted to think their work had made a positive and lasting difference.

I went on to talk about the need to deal with organizational systems from a whole system perspective and employ systems dynamic principles if large scale change has any chance for sustaining and how it has to be transformational or things will inevitably revert. When I was finished with my talk and people came up to me afterward, a few commented on my questions and confessed somewhat sheepishly that they had those experiences. But the large majority of people who talked with me afterward avoided the subject or mentioned how they know so many consultants who have “that problem,” implying they did not.

If I assessed the responses to my questions by the nods I got I’d say 90% shared the experience. If I went by comments after my talk, I’d say 15-20%. People had time to think more about what they might say, edit it and run it past their considerations like “what will John think of me if I confess this has been my experience?” and “what should I say that might be overheard by my fellow consultants?” or “what can I say that portrays me as an effective agent for change?”

In short, I will put more stock in a head nod than in what people say. That uncensored response to something people take in as valid is far more accurate a read on where they are than any conjured up critique. Give me the nods anytime!

Video: Conference speaker - audience interaction - Patrick Dixon

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Patrick Dixon) — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 03:31:08 -0700

Conference speakers need audience interaction. Engaging with audience with participation, questions, straw polls, discussion, walking into the audience, using volunteers - all important. Audience...

For 50 videos on the future, 45,000 pages and 6 free books by Dr Patrick Dixon, follow 9 million other people to http://www.globalchange.com

Leadership in Global Crisis - Thriving on Chaos

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Patrick Dixon) — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 03:32:07 -0700

Management is about following systems and processes and proceedures. Leadership is about changing them to achieve greater impact. In a crisis, many weak leaders abdicate responsibility and behave...

For 50 videos on the future, 45,000 pages and 6 free books by Dr Patrick Dixon, follow 9 million other people to http://www.globalchange.com

Pandemics of Orthodoxy: The Mind’s Search for the Right Way

John Renesch — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 09:26:26 -0700

According to Wikipedia, “The word orthodoxy is mainly associated with the Greek Orthodox Church…. Since this theological aspect was established the church moved on to resolve the right way to worship God or Orthodoxy.”

As I read on about the “right way to worship God” I cannot help but see the parallels in how so many devote capitalists attach themselves to “the perfect way” to create wealth, to engage in commerce, to generate profits and dominate markets. And it isn’t just religion and economics. This adherence to the “one right way” pops up in all human systems.

The fundamentalist approach to anything - be it religion, business, law, medicine, politics, education or any other discipline – is a function of the mind seeking a structure it can comprehend. This provides security for those who identify with their beliefs. The mind likes certainty and predictability. The mind has difficulty with things experiential – things that can be “messy” and unpredictable. So, the right way is sought and, once found, strictly adhered to with great fervor.

In religion it is the right way to worship, the right “sacred text” to believe literally, the right clergy to obediently follow. In medicine, it could be loyalty to tradition which prevents new learning. In education it could be the conventional factory-style method of training our young in the Three Rs. In business it shows up as the dominance of the financial bottom line.

When this orthodoxy is prevalent, those who challenge this perfect way are seen as heretics, such as advocates of the Triple Bottom Line in business, holistic healthcare, alternative schooling and restorative justice. While religion gave rise to the term, we see orthodoxy has found its way into all human endeavors, helping to make our institutions stodgy and arthritic, resistant and slow to change. Heterodoxy or “other teaching” which opposes orthodoxy met with plenty of resistance over the centuries in the world of religion. With the modern pandemic of this black and white way of thinking into all areas of our lives, we are seeing mass polarization, schisms and divides between neighbors, brothers and sisters, and friends similar to what was seen in the Inquisition, Crusades and Jihad.

For the sake of future generations, let us call a halt to this capitulation so our sense of spirituality, justice, education and health is allowed to remain experiential and not be concretized for the convenience of the egoic mind. Let us resist the temptation to reduce everything to what can be contained within the limited capacity of the mind and allow for these powerful experiences to have full rein within our hearts and souls.

Something's Happening Here

John Renesch — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 04:42:07 -0800

During a recent meeting about systems behavior the economic meltdown found its way into the conversation. After looking at the crisis from a systems perspective, many of us started envisioning something new rising from the ashes of the old system. Suddenly the lyrics to that 1960s Buffalo Springfield song popped into my head, “what’s that sound? what’s going down?” Later that evening I was moved to write a poem based on that experience. Here it is:

Echoes of Buffalo Springfield:

A Poem About the Financial Crisis

by John Renesch

The sound of fear is deafening as the cries of pundits pierce the air

Every day the news is grim and there’s so much talk, oh what despair

But wait a minute, what’s over here

It millions of young people starting to cheer

What’s that sound, what’s going down?

Is the banker going to take my home, or shall I lose my job?

It seems so dark from what they say, yet what I heard the other day

Hope is filling the air, not just gloom and doom

What is that sound, what is going down?

Something is dying that’s for sure, but something else is happening here

Nothing new can happen here until there’s room to grow

This is nature after all, what’s that sound.

So start the crying, the old system is going down

Something new is coming, new life is on the way

Like Buffalo Springfield said some time ago, it may not be exactly clear

But we can hear the sound if we lend an ear

Something is coming, that’s for sure

Stop, children, what's that sound, everybody look what's going down

Expectancy fills the air, as does uncertainty and gloom

It is time for hospice now

Get the midwives ready, they’ll be needed soon

Listen for the sounds of new birth, listen for the sounds of grieving

Listen to the sound, for what it’s worth

The third way is coming and it might be all new

Just like a baby, but when is it due?

The ravenous caterpillar has seen its final days

The glorious butterfly will soon be born

The golden sky awaits the end of the storm

No silver sounds, but a lot going down

Farewell to those who have lost their souls

The old bull is dying thanks to you

And welcome to the hopeful, the eager and the honest

We know it’s a mess, but please do your best

Thanks to Buffalo Springfield for having been

And the song they sang back then

What’s that…what's that sound?

Everybody look, what's going down.

[In the March issue of my newsletter I reflect on the butterfly metaphor for transformation.]

Moving from Hope to Faith

John Renesch — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 00:19:33 -0800

I cannot fail to mention the inauguration of Barrack Obama as the 44^th President of the United States in this blog. This is not as parochial as it may seem. It is not about the historic nature of being this country’s first African-American Commander-in-Chief. It is about the enormous worldwide upsurge in hope and optimism for the future of humankind.

The inauguration released so much energy from all parts of the world, even more so than the November elections. Perhaps this was due to it being more of a media event, perhaps because some people wondered if he’d ever make it into the White House.

Regardless of the reasons, the inauguration was a global event, watched by hundreds of millions, if not a billion, who joined in the celebration along with the two million people who stood in line for hours to watch the event in person. And lots of young people! (see Ocean Robbin’s video)

If ever there appears to be a time when the climate might be primed for major social transformation, it would appear to be now. Obama seems resolute on rectifying so many of the mistakes we’ve made in recent years. , He also seems resolute in restoring the world’s trust in the U.S.A. as partner not a dominator, as a leader not a bully.

For the first time in my life I am hearing a genuine acceptance by the American citizenry that this is not a time to sit back and critique how our new President performs; instead it is a time to get involved, to roll up our sleeves and pitch in. People are wanting to get involved suggesting an end to the passivity we have seen over the years among our citizenry, particularly with the younger generation. Time will tell how well all this talk will translate into action perform but many have come to realize just how susceptible a democracy can be if the citizens grow too passive and too complacent, abdicating their responsibilities to Washington. There must be room in our personal lives to be proactive citizens and that doesn’t merely mean voting and serving on an occasional jury. It means paying attention and holding our elected officials accountable for their actions

As America’s 26^th President Theodore Roosevelt said, “The first requisite of a good citizen in this republic of ours is that he shall be able and willing to pull his own weight.” Americans have not been pulling their own weight for quite some time, possibly since World War II when the times called for us all to pitch in to some degree or another. We have been consumed with ourselves at the exclusion of our beloved country and somewhat oblivious of our world and all the other inhabitants of planet earth. Perhaps now we will begin to be more responsible for the whole and all that sustains us.

Finally, let this hope we are hearing so much about transcend into a new faith in our ability to do this, to meet the challenges Obama so articulately describes. Let us not waste time hoping that he does well but have faith in ourselves that together we can do this.

GLOBAL WEB TRAFFIC TOPS 1 BILLION

Speaker Admin — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 07:25:00 -0800

Top 15 Countries by Internet Audience Ranked by Total Unique Visitors (000)* December 2008 Age 15+, Home & Work Locations Source: comScore World Metrix
Country	Total Unique Visitors (000)	Share of Total Worldwide Internet Audience (%)
Worldwide	1,007,730	100.0%
China	179,710	17.8%
United States	163,300	16.2%
Japan	59,993	6.0%
Germany	36,992	3.7%
United Kingdom	36,664	3.6%
France	34,010	3.4%
India	32,099	3.2%
Russia	28,998	2.9%
Brazil	27,688	2.7%
South Korea	27,254	2.7%
Canada	21,809	2.2%
Italy	20,780	2.1%
Spain	17,893	1.8%
Mexico	12,486	1.2%
Netherlands	11,812	1.2%

* Excludes traffic from public computers such as Internet cafes or access from mobile phones or PDAs.

Do You Think Globally? Then Check This Out!

John Renesch — Thu, 01 Jan 2009 03:28:04 -0800

As the world continues to shrink and threats to human life transcend regional commons, there is a greater need for more people to take greater responsibility than simple national citizenship. People are being called to stand for solutions that transcend national boundaries and include the entire planet Earth.

Until now there has been no venue for these people to gather since they are from disparate locations all over the world. What better gathering place than cyberspace.

At a time when a myriad of crises surround us - financial meltdowns, climate change, rainforest depletion, genocide and starvation - how can ordinary citizens rally to do anything meaningful?

Enter the social network created by a successful Internet entrepreneur-turned-philanthropist, The Neo Declaration of Earth Citizenship. Created for global citizens, the Declaration is a place where people can not only sign and agree to it’s tenets but they can add their own individual commitments or declarations for action as well. Then signers can support one another’s commitments, so there’s great potential collaboration potential. These personal declarations are expressions of people’s passions and serve to augment the master document’s scope of principles.

Still in its early stages, the Neo Declaration has already attracted leaders from civil society, the sustainability movement, human rights activists and authors whose focus is improving the state of the world. Early signers include social entrepreneurs, musicians, artists, executives, writers, academics, health workers and many other professions. Signers already represent all parts of the world from South America to Asia, Europe to Africa and Australia to the North America.

Leading edge international organizations such as The Hunger Project, Collective Wisdom Initiative, World Business Academy, United Religions Initiative, New Dimension Radio, represent early signers. And it is gaining attention of forward thinking academics as well. These include Dr. Srikumar Rao, London Business School, Dr. Ian Mitroff, Professor Emeritus Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California, U.S. futurist Peter Bishop, Professor Prasad Kaipa, Indian School of Business and Bruce Lloyd, Professor of Strategic Management, London South Bank University.

Among authors who have signed are Fast Company magazine founder, Alan Webber, James Autry, author of Love and Profit and other books, David Schwerin, the author of Conscious Capitalism, Robert White, author of Living an Extraordinary Life, Sanjoy Mukherjeem, editor of Journal of Human Values, Dr. John Adams, author of Thinking Today as if Tomorrow Mattered, Debbe Kennedy, author of Putting Our Differences to Work, and a diverse roster of others from around the world. The creator and host of the U.S. television series “Thinking Allowed,” Jeffery Mishlove, is another early signer.

The Declaration’s theme of global citizenship is reminiscent of Thomas Paine’s words written over 250 years ago in Common Sense, a bestselling pamphlet that became a blueprint of modern democracy. Paine wrote, "My country is the world. My countrymen are mankind."

In the last month or so the number of signers has tripled as word is getting around the world. Check it out: go to www.neo.org. I signed it. Maybe you will too!

*******

[In keeping with the new year, my newsletter for this month features an editorial - "Champagne: Metaphor for Social Transformation." Check it out, and best wishes for 2009!]

MOBILE MULTI-MEDIA WEB

Speaker Admin — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 02:29:00 -0800

Nokia calls its new N97 handset, available in the first half of 2009, the "world's most advanced mobile computer" — and it certainly will be strong challenger to the Apple "iPhone" and Research in Motion "Blackberry" lines.

The N97 has a large 3.5-inch 16:9-ratio wide-screen/touch-screen, plus a slide-out "Qwerty" keyboard. It plays Flash videos and has a 5-mega-pixel high-quality Carl Zeiss camera, with 16:9 and DVD quality video capture. It also has a huge 48GB memory that will store thousands more songs than iPhone.

Nokia calls N97 "the most powerful, multi-sensory mobile computer in existence." It brings mobile high-speed Web access, with features such as "always-on" access to social-networking sites such as Facebook. Built-in GPS provides location-specific information, which Nokia calls "social location" where users can update their Profile with precise details about their location and thus find nearby friends. The N97 has a new-look Nokia Maps program, which allows users to pre-plan a journey on their computer and synchronize the route on the mobile phone.

The N97 will be available in the first half of 2009.

Can a Cry for Fairness Bridge the Gap Across Ideologies?

John Renesch — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 01:07:06 -0800

I’ve written much about the growing divide between the left and right in America in recent years, likening it to a new civil war of ideologies. It occurred to me last week there may actually be hope for bridging the divide and connecting us all again as citizens. Rationality hasn’t worked nor have pleas for civility, respectfulness and accuracy. Perhaps there could be a new reconciler in the wings.

One of the unintended consequences of the recent Wall Street meltdown has been an outrage on both sides of the ideological divide over one thing: the American people feel ripped off by market manipulators, particularly when those most responsible for this debacle walk away with millions in compensation. While we have been willing to reward greed, rewarding incompetence is not part of the American psyche. The outrage being reported around the Wall Street and banking meltdown seems to transcend ideologies. “This isn’t fair!” is a cry from all directions, not just left or right.

Americans have remained fairly quiet on a number of social fairness issues, among them equal compensation for women who do the same work as men, the legal system favoring defendants with money over those who don’t have much and special interest groups getting exceptional treatment by government . These are just three social inequities America has allowed to persist without major objection. Perhaps the pain of this global monetary crisis may hurt enough people bad enough that the social fairness agenda will come to a head and serve enough as a bond for a healing to occur across ideologies.

Market fundamentalists who normally scream hands off the regulation buttons are admitting something needs to be done to rein in the ever-ending greed and manipulations that have become so commonplace in the market. The triggering event for this change of heart may be the blatant unfairness of rewarding “over the top” greed and incompetence. Once there’s a willingness to look at the fairness issue, it becomes a human matter not an ideological one. There is a built-in unfairness in the system.

Washington insiders have lobbied for generations to tilt the tables in their favor, shaping the market to their liking. Anyone who examines all the special interests and the benefits they gain while the rest of us go without will see the market has been manipulated in their favor.

People are basically good at their core but circumstances seem to influence the decisions and choices they make. The culture that has existed on Wall Street includes taking advantage of if legal loopholes; it is okay! Another has been “if it isn’t illegal then it must be all right.” In others words, don’t bother using your conscience; just find ways to make a quick buck as fast as possible. And – there is no such thing as too much profit! This explains the culture that has been dominant until now and sheds some light on how CEOs can feel completely justified taking home $35 million while their companies are going bankrupt or being bailed out.

Am I being naïve and overly optimistic? I hope not. Something needs to transcend this deepening of the ideological divide among Americans – most of whom are essentially good people. We are tearing ourselves apart through this polarization and if ideals can’t bring us together maybe the shared pain and sheer outrage at the degree to which a small group of people will profit from the loss by so many others will reunite us. Will our basic human values regarding what’s right and what’s wrong prevail? I hope so.

Are Americans Guilty of Willful Blindness?

John Renesch — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 05:36:08 -0800

A good deal of the U.S. government’s nefarious activity that would be deemed unacceptable by most patriotic Americans is not necessarily being done in secret. Much of our darker carryings on in other countries are reported by the global press so they are well documented and well known by those who read or watch them. But do American editions run those stories? Rarely, right? Why is this? Why do even CNN, Time and Newsweek, all based in the U.S., only run these stories in their foreign editions? Most likely reason: there’s no domestic market for them. As a culture, Americans would rather consume gossip about sex symbols in court that hear anything about our nation’s violations of decency, human rights, imperialism and vendettas abroad. This makes us guilty of “willful blindness.”

Wikipedia defines willful blindness (sometimes called “willful ignorance” or “contrived ignorance”) as “a term used in law to describe a situation in which an individual seeks to avoid civil or criminal liability for a wrongful act by intentionally putting himself in a position where he will be unaware of facts which would render him liable. For example, in a number of cases, persons transporting packages containing illegal drugs have asserted that they never asked what the contents of the packages were, and therefore lacked the requisite intent to break the law. Such defenses have not succeeded, as courts have been quick to determine that the defendant should have known what was in the package, and exercised criminal recklessness by failing to find out before delivering it.”

A majority of our adult population could be judged guilty in any international tribunal based on this principle of law. But we don’t have to worry about being caught. Our government has declared itself impervious to all the tribunals who might come to that conclusion, using financial and military intimidation or downright stonewalling.

Most of us still carry an inner image of Americans as heroes, the good guys, liberators and champions of democracy and freedom. Stories that reinforce these images are more to our liking than stories that portray us as the villains, the bad guys, occupiers and violators of liberty. Few are aware of our history of destroying democratic governments when they wouldn’t abide by our wishes and replacing them with dictators (cruel but willful puppets). Few of us are aware of the track record of conspiracies, assassinations and overthrows widely reported in tell-all books like The Confessions of an Economic Hit Man - a New York Times bestseller. But it only takes a half million copies to achieve bestseller status. That’s less than one percent of our nations’ adult population! There have been dozens of books and hundreds of articles disclosing these nasty facts, so commonly known in other parts of the world. Americans who spend time abroad and are exposed to local media are less ignorant of these practices. But a relatively few Americans travel or read these kinds of books and articles so the vast majority remains in the bubble of ignorance. Remaining in this bubble is a choice; it is willful – willful blindness. As George Bernard Shaw writes, “Democracy is a device that ensures we shall be governed no better than we deserve.”

Cocktail conversations will blame the media but media publishes what the consumers buy. The majority of Americans, entranced by their delusions, don’t want to listen, watch or read about anything that tarnishes their idealized and outdated image of Americans. We were once loved, admired, even held in great gratitude by the rest of the world. Now we are hated and feared by much of the world. As a colleague in Great Britain told me recently, “All my friends consider Americans to be the biggest threat to the survival of humanity.”

I’ll end this diatribe with a call to action, a call for taking a stand. Let us advocate willful consciousness, willful awareness and become willfully informed. Let us enroll our fellow citizens in this quest to replace ignorance with truth, blindness with light, avoidance with engagement, and denial with acceptance. Once we have a critical mass of patriotic, informed and engaged Americans we can then choose what we’ll do about it. Perhaps we might insist such distasteful practices cease and see that our country reclaims its role as leader by example. Perhaps when the world sees us changing, not from edict but from public outcry, we will regain the trust of other nations and peoples around the world. When this occurs we might see America back on track to fulfilling the promise envisioned in 1776, and the people will have reclaimed their right to govern themselves again.

EXPLAINING the SEMANTIC WEB

Speaker Admin — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 15:38:00 -0700

Nova Spivack is a web visionary, entrepreneur, and CEO and Founder of Radar Networks which developed the semantic web application Twine, which just went live. It is a service that aims to “tie it all together” in order to make sense of the web.

This link is to his full presentation video at
"The Next Web" conference 2008 recently,
entitled “Making Sense of the Semantic Web”.
I encourage you to watch it.

Spivack says that keyword search, as we use on any search engine, is starting to deliver diminishing returns (see slide above — taken from the video presentation), which he explains as follows:

Keyword search engines return haystacks,
but what we really are looking for are the needles.
The problem with keyword search such as Google’s
approach is that only highly cited pages make it
into the top results. You get a huge pile of results,
but the page you want — the “needle” you are looking
for — may not be highly cited by other pages and
so it does not appear on the first page.
This is because keyword search engines don’t
understand your question, they just find pages
that match the words in your question.

This has major implications for search engine optimization (SOE). The semantic Web, he explains, is nothing more than a set of standards that, if broadly adopted, would help computers extract meaning from the flood of data on the Web. But instead of a brute software approach, it puts intelligence into the data.

Wall Street Casinos: Ending the Anarchy of Speculation

John Renesch — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 06:29:36 -0700

“How selfish soever man may be supposed, there are evidently some principles in his nature, which interest him in the fortune of others, and render their happiness necessary to him, though he derives nothing from it, except the pleasure of seeing it.” – Adam Smith (1723-1790), author, The Wealth of Nations and The Theory of Moral Sentiments.

In the late 1980s and early 1990s a group of us involved in the World Business Academy were concerned about where capitalism was headed. WBA Founder Willis Harman compared Wall Street with gambling casinos in his book Global Mind Change (1988). We had many discussions comparing the growth of a more speculative approach, demanding greater returns in shorter time frames, to the days when people really invested for the long term and looked forward to dividends. There were frequent comparisons to gambling casinos as growing numbers of day traders and creative mechanisms appeared on the scene, all designed to “make a killing” for those insiders who were skilled in manipulating the financial system.

In 1993, Joel Kurtzman, then a business editor at The New York Times, published The Death of Money: How the Electronic Economy Has Destabilized the World’s Markets and Created Financial Chaos. Kurtzman’s “electronic economy” is the vast volume of transactions made each day by unstaffed computers, prompted by market fluctuations. Additionally he revealed the giant share of transactions in the economy that have nothing whatsoever to do with services or goods. They are entirely speculative, just like gambling. As he writes, “…how can there be equilibrium when the size of the pool of money changing hands globally every day dwarfs the actual value of the goods traded?”

Consciousness and Economics

Willis and I were excited about Kurtzman’s book and discussed compiling original writings for a new anthology which Willis and Kurtzman would co-edit. The working title was Conscious Capitalism. For various reasons the book never happened but it did inspire me to write about this new breed of capitalism, a system far closer to what Adam Smith envisioned. In 1996, I published “A Call for Conscious Capitalism” and incorporated this model into many of my subsequent articles, including an entry into a contest co-sponsored by The Economist in 2000. But, alas, the world continued its path toward more perverse and predatory ways of practicing capitalism.

Around the same time I met Bernard Lietaer, a Belgium banker who seemed very informed and experienced in money matters, particularly the consciousness around money, not merely the mechanisms involved. This ability of Lietaer to know the way the system worked as well as appreciating the impact of human consciousness on the system was very attractive to me. He also held a systems perspective and was predicting large scale shifts in the global economy. Last week, Lietaer shared some of his recent writings with me. In part, he wrote, “we have now entered the long period of unprecedented financial instability that was predicted in The Future of Money [his 2001 book]. It is most likely that this will take the form of the dance where one goes two or three steps backward for every step forward. Every small step forward (i.e. any temporary improvement) will predictably be hailed as the ‘end of the crisis.’ It is quite understandable why governments, banks and regulators will make such statements, simply because saying otherwise would only make the situation worse.”

Lietaer sees this current breakdown as a symptom of system structure, not a cycle as many are referring to it. Lietaer is currently working on two new books due out this winter which will surely benefit from his additional insights from this market meltdown.

Free Market, Ha!

A couple of years ago on a flight to Brazil, I was seated next to a young man from India. He worked for the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank. As we exchanged cards I noticed his title was “financial engineer,” a term I found curious. Engineering seemed contrary to free markets. Upon further reflection, however, I could see many manipulations that were contrary to the market being truly free. I recognized the conflict between market fundamentalism and laissez faire capitalism, with their strong opposition to government interference, and the manipulations and contrivances these same free market advocates endorse such as lobbying, subsidies and tax advantages. In other words, don’t do anything that hinders us but allow us to gain every advantage we can afford to create for ourselves. So much for “free” markets!

So it wasn’t a total surprise when the markets crashed and the meltdown started in recent days, rippling to other economies like dominos in free fall. Any unsustainable system eventually reaches its breakdown. Band Aid approaches to fix the system will likely be attempted. If they are they will merely postpone the breakdown and possibly lead to an even harder breakdown later.

The system is broken. Even mainstream media are saying it today. It requires a rebuilding not repair. While there have been plenty of warnings and predictions this could happen, the leaders of the system - those with the most power to bring about change - refused to listen. As Harlan Cleveland, former U.S. ambassador to NATO, wrote in his book Nobody in Charge, "Those with visible responsibility for leadership are nearly always too visible to take responsibility for change…"

So the forecasts were correct and now some people in leadership positions seem more likely to listen. Perhaps this had to happen for us all to finally get it. This is more painful than it needed to be, and it will likely get worse, but new listening may be available for the first time. The “system” may have been jolted hard enough to shift its attention so we can reinvent the system, not simply prop-up the old one.

The consciousness behind the system has fostered greed, parochial short-term thinking, market manipulation and outmoded regulations. The new system has an opportunity to be based upon our mutual interdependence, global citizenship, market transparency and 21^st Century regulations.

Where’s the Pony?

There’s an old story about two young brothers who come home from school to find their room filled with horse manure. The pessimistic one gets very upset and immediately starts crying and complaining about the mess. The more optimistic brother starts jumping up and down, looking all around with great excitement screaming, “Oh boy! With all this manure there’s got to be a pony here somewhere?”

As I read articles in the Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal reporting that capitalism is broken (at least the U.S. model) and how our economy is the victim of the “anarchy of speculation,” part of me is elated, not for the pain and suffering so many people are feeling right now but at the prospects for a true transformation, which is sometimes only possible after the system blows up. Then President Bush (friend of the fat cats) comes on television and tells us the debacle in the markets is “the result of a speculative economy.” The man whose policies exasperated the dysfunction and brought it to a head is telling us indirectly his policies helped to bring us here. This must have eaten him up, to admit his philosophy and policies were a major factor in this disaster for which the American people will pay dearly in so many ways. And he’ll probably go down in history best known for presiding over this devastating bit of financial piracy.

Thank You Market Fundamentalists

The market fundamentalists everywhere have been the biggest contributors to this debacle. A few greedy people and many clever financial engineers did their part too. Time will tell whether or not this major upheaval will be a major blip in our evolution to a better system or a complete failure requiring us to effectively start all over again.

Like with all transformations, there is pain and chaos, uncertainty and big changes. Transformations often include rough spots. So let us make the most of this rough spot and not simply repair an outmoded system, restoring the same mechanisms. Let us create a system that works for everyone and is truly sustainable. Let us create a more compassionate capitalism, similar to that which Adam Smith – the so-called “father of capitalism” - envisioned in his works about wealth and morality.

GSM: Mobile Broadband is Coming

Speaker Admin — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 13:34:00 -0700

A group of 16 leading telecoms and IT companies is uniting under the auspices of the GSM Assn to promote mobile broadband in a US$1-billion marketing initiative over the next year. This development means that most people in the world will have their first and only online experience via a mobile device.

The group aims to make it simpler for consumers to identify laptops that have built-in online access via next-generation high-speed (HSPA and LTE) networks. The group sees a demand for $50 billion worth of such notebooks this year alone. The group also said the move could pave the way to connect all kinds of devices to the Web — from MP3 players to refrigerators and cars.

Partners in the initiative are Microsoft, Vodafone, Asustek, 3 (a unit Hutchison Whampoa), Dell, ECS, Ericsson, Gemalto, Lenovo, Orange (a unit of France Telecom), Qualcomm, Telefonica Europe, T-Mobile, and Toshiba.

Wall Street Skull and Crossbones

John Renesch — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 07:14:22 -0700

In 2002 I wrote about the “modern-day tyrants ” suggesting they might be the master manipulators of Wall Street. In part I stated:

These modern day tyrants value short-term financial gratification more than anything else. Their actions are totally inconsistent with a sustainable world in which people are valued and life is affirmed. They create no real value in the world, certainly not in the way most of us think about adding value, such as an exchange of something for something else. Their sole purpose is to make a profit, and to do so with the least amount of capital as possible.

Fast forward six years to this past week...

The other evening I was watching a segment of the movie “Pirates of the Caribbean” starring Johnny Depp as Captain Jack Sparrow. In one scene Sparrow and a fellow pirate make a toast, apparently one of the pirate codes - “Take what you can. Give nothing back.” In light of the financial fiasco confronting the whole world today, this seemed very timely for the consciousness (or lack of it) that has been allowed to permeate our corporate environments in recent years.

We apparently learned nothing from the Enron, WorldCom, Arthur Andersen debacle earlier this decade. Nor from the savings and loan scandals of the 1980s. Or the many other indicators that predatory capitalism only works for a very few at the expense of the vast majority. Americans are most probably going to pay for all this maleficence.

If markets were truly free and unfettered, the market fundamentalists might have a valid point. But those who manipulate the market to their advantage cannot honestly justify that position when they themselves tilt the playing field in their favor. This is not a free market but a skewed market that required some restraints.

Those who have mastered this game – those who made fortunes while leaving the rest of the world in ruins – have no conscience. They leave others to clean up after them and slink off into the darkness with their loot. They truly do subscribe to the pirates code: Take what you can. Give nothing back. This makes these dubious characters the modern-day pirates, far worse than mere tyrants.

If you happen to know any of these modern-day pirates and are keeping quiet about them out of some distorted sense of loyalty I suggest you blow the whistle and do it now! It may prevent another bunch of greedy SOBs from pillaging the public trough in another few years.

[please forward to anyone you know who works in the financial services industry]

SOCIAL MEDIA MARKETING: The 3 Basics

Speaker Admin — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 03:35:00 -0700

Businesses large and small are starting to use social networks as part of their marketing mix. Web 2.0 platforms such as LinkedIn and Ning provide the opportunity to meet and communicate with customers.

To promote and expand business opportunities, you need a social media marketing plan which encompasses three basics:

1. Pick the Platform that Meets Your Defined Goal
Your end goal is key in deciding which social networking platform to use. What are the platform’s features, who are the network’s members, why are they there, what do they expect to find of value by participating? How well does that user profile fit your overall marketing strategy?

2. Set Budgets and Guidelines
Most social network platforms, such as Ning, are free to use and easy to set up, with drag-n-drop homepage design features. But successful social network marketing demands at least a few hours a day of human resources to set up and maintain the network, to expand its membership base, and to communicate effectively with members. Initially, the related cost cannot possibly be cost-justified; that requires the network to mature and to start generating results. So the pay-back period will vary depending on the goal and purpose of the network. But avoid adding too many bells and whistles. Once an ongoing operating budget is established, stick to it, as you would with any project.

3. Create a Conversation with Your Niche
The most important element of social media marketing is the creation of a "conversation" among group members, and between them and the business. Involve as many members as possible, though you will find that 80% or more will be passive readers of conversations among the remaining few. Keep it simple and focused, and don’t get sidetracked by members who might want obscure discussions. Otherwise you will spend too much time moderating the group. Whenever a new member joins, send them a personalized welcome message and encouraging them to participate. The objective should be to build a bond with customers, bonding them to your brand. The goal is to become a meeting place for your market niche.

EMPLOYEE SOCIAL NETWORKS: How Sabre Does It

Speaker Admin — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 03:57:00 -0700

Sabre is the company that runs most of the world's airline flight reservation systems. It has almost 10,000 employees worldwide (about 55% outside USA). It created its own internal Web 2.0 platform to help employees stay in touch and to build corporate culture.

The employee network, named "Sabre Town" has typical features of any large social networking platform, such as detailed employee profiles, shared photos, blogs, comments, feeds, Q&A. The profile is casual and friendly, and includes voluntary personal information such as: hometown and where living now; skills and expertise; favorite lunch spots; favorite sports, hobbies, music, and celebrities; places you have visited or want to visit.

Employees can post a question to the entire organization, and the platform will automatically send it to the 15 most-relevant employees (based on the content of their profile, blog, or previous Q&As). The platform is based on Sabre's own legacy "predictive modeling" and CRM software or "relevance engine". Most questions are answered within an hour, with an average of 9 replies. The employee community thus help each other, allowing staff to tap the "corporate "brain" for answers.

Sabre now offers the "Sabre Town" platform (under the name "Cubeless") to other companies.

Lessons from Bucky

John Renesch — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 09:38:25 -0700

Years ago I had the pleasure of hearing R. Buckminster Fuller speak several times here in the Bay Area. It was a year or so before the passing of his wife whom he soon followed. “Bucky” - as he was affectionately known by his friends and fans – was a visionary inventor/engineer/architect who is probably best known for his geodesic dome design. He was posthumously recognized for his genius by having the C60 allotrope of carbon named “buckminsterfullerene” since it was structured similarly to Fuller’s revolutionary architecture for his dome.

Buckminsterfullerene molecule

Besides his many inventions and theories, Bucky left us some wondrous literature – around thirty books! One of my favorite Bucky quotes is: "If the success or failure of this planet, and of human beings, depended on how I am and what I do, how would I be? What would I do?"

These are not merely thought provoking questions asked rhetorically. Bucky’s life was a living response to them. For the most part, he lived as if the success or failure of the human race was dependent on how he lived and what he did.

We live in a time when our world would be better served if more of us lived our lives as if the future depended on us. Quite often, people rationalize their failure to live responsibly – as if the future depended upon their actions – telling themselves they are only one person out of billions. This sort of rationalization serves two masters: the cynic who is convinced nothing can be done to improve matters and the victim who is equally convinced they are powerless to change anything. It reeks of powerlessness.

One thing about Bucky which is less well- known: he seriously contemplated suicide in mid-life. He had a series of business failures, an experience known all too well by inventive types whose ideas are a bit too far ahead of the crowd, had gone bankrupt and lost his young daughter to polio. He reportedly had an epiphany which caused him to step back from the brink of taking his own life and embark on what he called "an experiment” - to discover what a single individual could contribute to change the world and benefit all humanity. For the next half century, he lived that experiment.

What if we lived that experiment each day? What if we asked ourselves, “What can I do today to benefit humanity?” Instead of wallowing in powerlessness what if we simply did something every day that contributed to the success of the human species? I guarantee you the world would start looking better.

Another of my favorite Bucky quotes is, "I'm not trying to counsel any of you to do anything really special except to dare to think, and to dare to go with the truth, and to dare to really love completely." I will add my own dare, no double dare!

Future of conferences, workshops and seminars - keynote for 4,500 people (MPI)

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Patrick Dixon) — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 20:37:33 -0700

Outline of opening keynote to 4,500 people at MPI conference in Las Vegas by Dr Patrick Dixon. Slides of MPI keynote and video Future of corporate events, conferences, workshops and seminars. ...

For 50 videos on the future, 45,000 pages and 6 free books by Dr Patrick Dixon, follow 9 million other people to http://www.globalchange.com

6 DEGREES of SEPARATION: Microsoft Proves It

Speaker Admin — Sun, 03 Aug 2008 04:07:00 -0700

After checking 30 billion messages, Microsoft researchers say that the "6 Degrees of Separation" theory is valid. The theory says that, thanks to all our friends and acquaintances, each of us is just 6 introductions away from any other person on the planet.

Microsoft found that any 2 complete "strangers" are (on average) only 6.6 connections away from each other — 7 or fewer acquaintances away from anyone else we care to name.

Microsoft studied 30 billion electronic communications among 180 million people in various countries. The database was all Microsoft Messenger instant-messaging (IM) network, as of June 2006, which then was about half of the world total IM traffic.

In the study, any 2 people were considered to be "acquainted" if they had sent one another a message. Researchers examined the minimum chain lengths that would be needed to connect 180 billion different pairs of users in the database. The average length was 6.6 hops, in that 78% of the pairs could be connected. Of course, some required fewer hops, some required more. Some pairs in the IM study were separated by as many as 29 steps.

Of course, in society at large, it is extremely unlikely that a person living in an isolated place could be connected with so readily, in that people living in small places tend not to travel and tend to have few people that they know outside their community. And of course, if a person is using IM, then there are no physical barriers to connection. However, it would be reasonable to assume that if the entire global population had IM service, then the degree of separation of 6.6 would still hold.

By way of background, the theory became popular with John Guare's 1990 play "Six Degrees of Separation" which became a movie.

Other, much smaller attempts to prove the theory also came up with the number 6. In a 1969 study, 296 people in Nebraska and Boston were asked to send a letter, through acquaintances, to a Boston stockbroker. Only 64 of the letters reached the stockbroker but of the completed letter chains, 6.2 was the average number of links.

In 2003, researchers at Columbia University, New York, experimented with the Internet. Some 24,000 volunteers tried to send email via acquaintances to 1 of 18 target people in 13 countries. Only 384 of the chains completed, in an average of 4 steps. But the average length of all the chains was estimated at 5-7 links.

Dealing With Spiritual Relapses: Overcoming the Recidivism of Our Egos

John Renesch — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 05:32:16 -0700

The dictionary defines recidivism as “a tendency to relapse into a previous condition or mode of behavior.” Usually this term is used in the context of government penal systems and the rate at which previously-released prisoners relapse into criminal behavior and often return to prison. Addicts use the word “relapse” to describe a return to their addictive behavior.

When writing or speaking about this in the context of human systems and the influence systems have on our behavior, this tendency to regress is similar to elastic bands wanting to return to their relaxed position. To resist this pull-back one must develop new muscles, new tools, so that the new behavior is reinforced and the older, more familiar behavior is given little or no attention. I suppose yoga could be a similar metaphor where one’s flexibility is improved through routine stretching so the new normal range of motion is greater than the old.

In a spiritual context, recidivism can be described as reversion to egoic thinking – where one’s spiritual self, one’s Higher Power or God or whomever/whatever one holds as a power greater than themselves is subordinated to their ego-mind. One relapses in their consciousness so they think they are “in charge” and their God is there to serve their thoughts and their ideas.

A doctor friend who is a member of Alcoholic Anonymous (A.A.) shares a story of when he first joined the A.A. fellowship. After several months of fighting the simplicity of the process and constantly trying to “out think” a proven strategy to get sober, his A.A. sponsor told him he only had to get two important things at that time: “There is a God and it isn’t you.”

Our egoic minds want to think they are in charge. Once we have spiritual experiences and see the wisdom of accepting a wiser more powerful source of inspiration, and realize our minds can serve that source very effectively, the ego lies in wait for any opportunity to assert its influence to take the helm once again. This “spiritual recidivism” is a sure path back to the restrictive lives with which we are so familiar. No matter how well we decorate them, no matter how fancy the furniture or the paintings, a jail cell is still a jail cell.

Exercise those “muscles” that keep you in touch with your God, your personal Higher Power, if you want to remain a free soul, truly liberated. Establish new habits and routines, adopt or develop spiritual practices and positive attitudes that encourage you to maintain a healthier perspective on the appropriate role of your mind, not as captain of your ship but a very competent second mate.

Relapses may still occur, but they might be more temporary. Reversions may occasionally happen but they can be more easily reversed. But unlike government penal systems which can have huge consequences for backslides you can return to a liberated life by activating those same muscles or tools and begin those spiritual practices without the need to spend more time in your jail cell – regardless of how well-decorated it might be.

SURFACE COMPUTING: The Microsoft "Sphere"

Speaker Admin — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 06:36:00 -0700

Bill Gates has often spoken about his vision for "surface computing", with numerous types of computerized surfaces, in business, out in society, and in the home.

This week, Microsoft Research unveiled a touch-display surface called Sphere (see video demo). The device, developed by Hrvoje Benko, Andy Wilson, and Ravin Balakrishnan, was demonstrated at the UIST 2008 Conference and Faculty Summit at Microsoft.

The system projects images onto the inner surface of the sphere, while infrared sensors respond to human touch on the outer surface. The Sphere can sense multiple contacts, thus allowing a number of people to use it simultaneously.

The video demonstrates several applications:

Browsing and manipulating the size and location of photos, videos, panoramic and 360-degree images,
Interactive Earth views and globe visualization,
Finger painting, drawing, or sketching,
Omni-directional 360-degree video-conferencing.
Images can be tossed back-and-forth, across the Sphere, between users.

Such applications would be ideal for highly-interactive public space environments — such as museums, lobbies, information booths, conference centers, airports, and sports centers — as well as business seminars and conferences.

SOCIAL NETWORKS: Beware QASSIA

Speaker Admin — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 07:43:00 -0700

A few months ago, I suggested that Qassia might be a good place to post articles, and also to potentially generate side income as well as traffic for your website or Blog.

I have changed my mind, after a number of unfortunate user experiences, and due to the fact that several key features have serious bugs (the platform is still in Beta) which they refuse to fix, even though they are still in use.

I quit Qassia and deleted my articles there. I can no longer recommend Qassia, for numerous reasons, and I recommend that you stay away.

WEB 2.0 ... From "Cool" to "Critical Tool"

Speaker Admin — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 04:05:00 -0700

IDC Canada recently produced a report entitled: "10 Canadian Web 2.0 Companies to Watch".

IDC cites two key qualities common to these 10 companies:

Ability to develop technology from the eye-candy stage to market-ready products or services;
Willingness to walk users and clients through the ins and outs of Web 2.0.

"To succeed in this emerging market," says IDC, "companies need to move their product from 'cool' to 'critical tool'."

The report highlights the following firms:

AdHack, a Vancouver-based, three-man company that provides a hosted site where ad creators can showcase their portfolio to various companies and potential ad buyers.
dThree, in Mississauga, Ontario, that helps businesses contextualize online and offline interactive marketing campaigns.
Octopz, a Toronto developer of an online collaboration tool that enables people work together on 100+ types of files.
Overlay.TV, an Ottawa company that has developed a way to tag items on videos and digital photos, and allow users to embed these on social networking site, websites or Blogs.
PlanetEye, a Toronto-firm putting a new spin on travel websites by making it possible for you to develop their own vacation tours using video, digital photos, and online maps which are hooked to a GPS system.
Ramius, an Ottawa company, which builds social networking systems for businesses using Blogs, online communities, profiles, tagging and other Web 2.0 tools. Its "Community Zero" software helps companies to build secure, scalable online communities.
SceneCaster, a Richmond Hill, Ontario, company that uses rich media to develop a site where a community members can create online vignettes using virtual objects.
Standout Jobs, a Montreal-based firm that helps companies create job sites that use videos, blogs, podcasts, polling widgets, and other Web 2.0 tools to generate better job-hunter contact and feedback.
Tomoye. The Japanese word tomoye means "revolution in the universe". This Gatineau, Quebec, company is an expert advice aggregator for business. It helps professionals learn and solve problems by networking and collaborating inside and outside of the companies to which they belong.
Tungle, a Montreal-based company, is a free Outlook plug-in that helps users easily share their calendars with other people without the need for expensive exchange servers. Users can coordinate meetings across platforms such as Google Calendar, iCal, Lotus Notes, and also with people not using Tungle.

WEB 2.0: The Future of Advertising

Speaker Admin — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 04:27:00 -0700

The previous post listed 10 leading-edge Canadian companies with innovative Web 2.0 applications. Here we provide more details on four of them, each in their own way demonstrating some potential future aspects of advertising.

(1). OVERLAY.TV

Overlay.TV's digital image overlay technology delivers what many advertising agencies have dreamed of for years: the ability to tag various items used in TV programs for marketing purposes. For example, you might click on the outfit worn by an actor and get information on where to purchase it, or simply buy it online, then and there.

Overlay.TV has gone outside of television, with online interactive sites such as Facebook, YouTube, and MySpace. The company offers people free use of their overlay software so that they can tag content which they generate themselves, or which they source from various social networking sites, such as Flickr. The tags display product information and online buying links. The tagged content can then be posted on any social networking site, the user's website, or blog.

For example, one popular tagged video video is that of Sarah Silverman singing with Matt Damon. Along the right-hand side of the screen are boxes or "targets" for products in the video which could be purchased.

Content creators can pick from thousands of products, created by individuals or businesses, with whom Overlay.TV has previously signed revenue sharing contracts. When a viewer purchases a product linked to the content, both Overlay.TV and the content creator get a share of the profits.

When Overlay.TV goes live with its full service on September, the company also hopes to be able to generate revenues by licensing their overlay software to ad companies and businesses, as well as offering professional online marketing services.

(2). AdHACK

AdHack, of Vancouver, describes itself as the "eBay of advertising". AdHack serves as a hub for freelance and other ad creators who need a site to showcase their talent by way of posting on the site previous works or proposed ads. The ad creators can use photos, poster-type images and videos, such as the Chocolate Love video created by Giant Ant Media, which could conceivably be bought by a chocolate manufacturer.

AdHack's is a "talent boutique" where agencies and businesses can pick out the talent that appeals to them. AdHack earns commission when an ad maker is hired by a company for an assignment. The company also hopes to earn revenue by renting out its Web 2.0 tools, using a "Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) payment model. AdHack's software also allows users to create online ads and generate reports that track Web traffic and viewer response.

(3). STANDOUT JOBS

To stand out, companies they need tools that move them away from the mostly bland online job ads you normally see. Standout Jobs, of Montreal, aims to aid companies in their hunt for talent by helping them create online hiring sites that are more attractive to their target audience.

The company is currently offering free software that lets clients build recruitment sites that highlight their organization. It launched its beta site in January and, like AdHack (above), also hopes to gain income later by offering its product under a "SaaS" payment model.

A typical site allows companies to post blogs, photos, feedback widgets, and videos — such as that used by b5Media, a new media network in Toronto. Such tools provide companies with an excellent opportunity to attract candidates. Through employee blogs, photos of workers, or videos of company activities, candidates can better decide whether there is a "good fit". Companies also can gain more information about prospective employees through interactive features, such as polling widgets that enable users to voice their opinions.

(4). PLANET EYE

PlanetEye seeks to capitalize on the growing market for digital cameras, camera-enabled phones, and other digital image capturing devices with built-in Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) technology.

The site enables a traveler to create a personal profile, much as on sites such as Facebook. The underlying software then uses this data, coupled with GPS, to offer relevant places, events, or items of interest that the traveler might like during a planned trip. But rather than boring text-based content, the site uses digital media such as video and photos to help travelers decide if they want to check something out.

The software uses digital mapping and GPS data to sort and present digital photos by precisely where in the world they were taken. When you click on a photo, it shows you where the photo was taken, or where the image can be found on a map.

Aside from earning revenue from basic ads placed on the site, PlanetEye also gets revenue from booking affiliates, such as hotels, restaurants, golf courses, and other venues featured on the maps. The company will soon launch a hybrid licensing model where businesses can use PlanetEye's software on their own corporate site.

A Potentially Fatal Fallacy

John Renesch — Sun, 06 Jul 2008 10:08:26 -0700

You’ve heard of the “fatal flaw,” sometimes called the “tragic flaw?” It is the one thing people either ignored or forgot about when they set about to achieve something and failed. It is what the forensics people might determine as the primary “cause of death” of the ideal, the project, whatever. Aristotle might have called it hamartia which could connote a failure of morals, or character, or hubris. YourDictionary.com defines this flaw “as pride, in the character of the protagonist of a tragedy… leads to that protagonist's downfall.”

Fallacy on the other hand is “aptness to mislead…deceptive or delusive quality” as in “the fallacy of the senses.” It is a false or mistaken idea or opinion. YourDictionary.com defines is as “an error in reasoning; flaw or defect in argument; an argument which does not conform to the rules of logic, esp. one that appears to be sound.”

Now this seems so befitting to the paradigm of thought so widespread in our Western industrialized society, the misleading “fallacy of the senses” that tells us we are separate from one another, Nature’s resources are unlimited and conflict can be resolved with exacerbation rather than reconciliation. When we start examining this fallacy, it no longer becomes an interesting study of a fallen emperor’s chink, a Waterloo-like decision that brought an end to a regime or even a product launch that ruined a corporation. A fallacious worldview today can lead to extinctions like it does in Nature and collapses like what occurred to regionally isolated societies of the past.

There’s no such thing as “regionally isolated societies” any more, at least not any modern societies. It might be argued if Western society’s current worldview continues to serve as its basis for relating with one another, continues to “not conform to the rules of logic, especially one that appears to be sound,” who’s “false and mistaken idea or opinion” continues to go unchallenged, a social collapse of unprecedented proportions could result. This would be the fatal fallacy of thought, the flawed thinking that was left unchecked until the evidence was so overwhelming it was too late to do anything but cry.

What do we tell our children? Our grandchildren? Their children? “Sorry, kids, we were too busy to notice.” Or, “Oops, I hope your generation does better than we did.” Well, guess what? Those conversations are already happening! Did you catch the 12 year old girl admonishing a large conference in South America last year on TV? Have you heard of thousands of conversations between parents and their teenage children at dinner tables everywhere? Thank God some of these young men and women possess enough awareness to start thinking differently, at least about environmental matters.

It would be different if changing mindsets were a very expensive proposition. Unlike many of the world’s problems, this challenge is not financial. All it takes is a willingness to think differently, to venture into inquiries that could challenge our beliefs, challenge our assumptions, push against our stubborn attachments to the way things have to be. The price for this change is not monetary. It is not material. It is largely a matter of ego.

Why do we continue living and working within an outmoded paradigm when it has been demonstrated how outmoded our exiting paradigms of thought really are? What a mistake it is to continue operating from their premises. Unimaginable possibilities await us if we dare to embrace new paradigms. So why do we persist in this fallacious thinking? If you answer “because we don’t know any better” that would be a lie given we’ve had people telling us this for almost a century so we could “know better” if we were interested in learning anything.

If your answer is “because we’re set in our ways” then shame on us for continuing a practice knowing it could be leading us to extinction. Sounds completely stupid? So does smoking cigarettes when you know if isn’t good for you. What about “it is too hard”? If this has any merit we must admit to being so addicted to the way we think we won’t consider changing even when it appears life-threatening. Like the alcoholic who often wants to stop and can’t, this third explanation may be the most valid. If this is so, then I propose, we tell it like it is and admit it!

We are left with the truth: we’re simply hooked on our way of thinking and either aren’t willing or don’t want to change. If this is the end game for humanity then at least we can go out in a blaze of glory like Butch and Sundance. Doesn’t sound particularly mature to me but, hey…. Party! Party! Party!

Tubemogul: free online video distribution. Tubemogul review

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Patrick Dixon) — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 03:45:19 -0700

Tubemogul is a brilliant free online video publishing site which I discovered a few weeks ago and has made my life a lot easier when uploading to different video hosting destinations. Tubemogul...

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Biofuels video: run buses on old cooking oil - Stagecoach ...

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Patrick Dixon) — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 03:46:38 -0700

Innovation using old cooking oil to drive buses or cars or lorries. Future of public transport energy efficiency and Stagecoach innovation in energy saving, reducing carbon footprint. Why biofuel...

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Future of Dentistry - digital dentists and dental ...

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Patrick Dixon) — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 03:47:54 -0700

Future of dentistry, dental practice and dentists. Health care trends,oral care and mouthcare products. Digital imaging and dental diagnostics. Prosthetics, milling, machining and manufacture of...

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Future of paper and packaging industry 1 conference ...

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Patrick Dixon) — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 03:49:05 -0700

Future of paper and cardboard packaging in China, India, emerging markets, America and the EU. Impact of new technology on paper use. Newsprint market and newspaper readership trends -- decline in...

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Paperless office? Future of paper newspapers magazines books

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Patrick Dixon) — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 03:50:34 -0700

Paperless office -- reality. Advantages of paper -- resolution, contrast, convenience, able to write on it. Digital paper and scree resolution of electronic books. Future of plastics and competition...

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Future of Packaging Industry - and paper products - ...

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Patrick Dixon) — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 03:51:47 -0700

Future of plastics and competition with paper and cardboard in food and drink industry. Logistics, distribution, courier companies and supply chain management, packaging in manufacturing, wholseale...

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Future of Food and Drink Industry conference keynote speaker

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Patrick Dixon) — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 03:52:43 -0700

Future of food prices. Reasons for high wheat prices -- Australia drought, emerging markets, more people eating meat, biofuels etc. Food emotions in consumers and food scares -- product recalls....

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Concrete = 7% global CO2 emissions - global warming impact

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Patrick Dixon) — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 03:53:15 -0700

Cement production responsible for 7% global co2 emissions, 1 ton of concrete uses 1 ton of carbon, impact of real estate construction industry on global warming. Development of property, energy...

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Global Warming video - cutting peak energy demand, surges, ...

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Patrick Dixon) — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 03:53:49 -0700

Peak electricity consumption, power cuts, brownouts, cold and hot days. Reducing peak demand. Intelligent metering and automatic meter readings. Cost per megawatt hour, mwhr. Reducing energy demand...

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Geothermal heat pumps video - save 50% energy global warming

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Patrick Dixon) — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 03:38:26 -0700

Heat exchangers, geothermal heat pumps, payback period of 15 years. Installation of geothermal heating and cooling in new buildings in Sweden, New Zealand Switzerland, UK, US, Australia, Pilot...

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Future of oil prices - oil price rises - oil industry trends

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Patrick Dixon) — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 03:31:33 -0700

Rational pricing of oil -- recent $15 a barrel rising to $120 a barrel for oil. Potential peak of $250 a barrel. Petrochemical industry future. Future of oil prices. Rising and falling oil prices....

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Global Warming - Practical Action to Stop Climate Change

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Patrick Dixon) — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 03:32:47 -0700

Princeton University, Stop climate change. Slow down global warming. Reduce carbon emissions. wedges to tackle global warming. Real estate contribution to global warming -- 40% energy consumption on...

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Global warming - what governments should do and will do

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Patrick Dixon) — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 03:33:55 -0700

Government action on global warming and climate change. Future government policy, distortion of national energy markets with regulations, tax reliefs and direct subsidies. Government subsidies...

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Biofuels scandal - food or fuel? Video on Biofuel crisis,biofuel oil

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Patrick Dixon) — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 03:35:07 -0700

biofuel industry is dead -- biofuel by converting food into oil is stupid and immoral. Biodiesel, biomass, biowaste and sugar to fuel conversion. Ethanol and gasoline or petrol mix, European Union EU...

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Green Roofs video - save energy - global warming action - ...

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Patrick Dixon) — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 03:37:33 -0700

Data from Chicago, Tokyo, California, New York, Australia, Toronto, Germany, Reduction of roof temperature, city climate, heat island reduction, cooling savings, environmental. High rise blocks with...

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Global warming facts CO2: 7% carbon emissions = concrete

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Patrick Dixon) — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 03:39:23 -0700

Concrete impact on global warming -- save 7% global emissions? Heating to make cement, and carbon dioxide release. Reducng carbon dioxide emissions in construction and building industry. Zeobond,...

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40% energy = buildings: offices waste energy global warming

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Patrick Dixon) — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 03:40:42 -0700

How long buildings last -- scandal http://www.globalchange.com Scandal of short life of commercial buildings. Building and demolition costs and lifetime energy use of corporate real estate. 30 -- 40...

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Bird flu - real risks to personal lives, business, society

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Patrick Dixon) — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 03:41:38 -0700

What will happen if bird flu mutates into a rapidly spreading epidemic? Death toll estimates from governments and how society is most likely to be impacted - even if death rates turn out to be very...

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Future of education -- instant knowledge in an online ...

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Patrick Dixon) — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 08:00:08 -0700

Old style education focus on memory and knowledge. New style education needs to focus on how to find immediate answers to complex problems from a starting point of ignorance, using new technology....

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What are we educating people for? Preparation for Life

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Patrick Dixon) — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 06:38:03 -0700

What kind of world will students and MBA participants face? Fundamental global changes. Obsession with exams, grades, syllabus and traditional methods of assessment. Need to prepare students for life...

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Global warming and construction industry / real estate

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Patrick Dixon) — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 07:59:42 -0700

Global Warming Threat: Construction industry in Australia is wasteful and needs to change radically Despite efforts to be more efficient, Australia’s emissions of carbon dioxide have risen at...

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Are We Zombies Or Just Sleepwalking?

John Renesch — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 03:05:36 -0700

I had the pleasure to host social activist and environmentalist Van Jones as my guest yesterday for the Howard Thurman Forum Series. The format is similar to “Inside Actors Studio” which airs on the Bravo TV Network in which host James Lipton interviews a well-known actor with an audience of students at New York’s Actors Studio.

A sizable group of young people, mostly students, were in the audience to hear Van. Their presence definitely influenced the tone of the interview and the comments which followed. By the end of the Forum, it was fairly clear to most of us that we have been a disengaged citizenry for a couple of generations and that for any meaningful change to occur in the U.S., the new generation has to get more involved in the political process. Left to the people in Washington, even with the anticipated changes in the White House with the upcoming elections, things will only get worse. The systems is broken and no heroic figure is going to make much difference unless the system changes. It is also clear where this scale of change is going to come from: we the people.

We the people have abdicated our responsibility as citizens. Our forefathers and mothers made great sacrifices to create a country that could function effectively with checks and balances to maintain order and freedom. Many made huge sacrifices for their country. Nowadays, if we vote every few years we consider ourselves good citizens (the half of us who do vote). The rest is rhetoric – discussing candidates or issues along the way toward voting. Very few of us do any service for the nation such as Peace Corps or the military or even connecting with our elected officials. Most of us are disengaged, busying ourselves with relatively trivial matters like television reality shows, tabloid TV or radio, and fascination with our technologies. Regarding engaged citizenship we have essentially quit. We act as if we are asleep, impervious to the fact that we have the governments we deserve.

Van helped us see yesterday that many of us have been sleepwalking through our lives when it comes to our role as citizens in a democracy. He made an excellent point for the benefit of the younger audience members that they have a sacred responsibility to engage in the politics if anything new is going to occur, no matters who is elected to the White House in November.

The question we have to ask ourselves: can we wake up? Are we merely somnambulating (sleepwalking) or has something died inside us making us zombies, the “living dead” who are beyond recessitating?

These are questions we of the older generations need to ask ourselves now, while there is still hope for real change to occur with the upcoming elections. As Van so eloquently pointed our yesterday, any new President will fail at making real changes without an engaged electorate standing behind them – an electorate determined to fix the system, reform the way politics is done, even reinventing government if that is what it takes.

Whether you are an American or live elsewhere in the world, we are the change we’ve been hoping for. Like the U.S., our world has become too complex for any one person to be a hero and fix things. It will require many of us to get things working again, and that includes me, Van, those young students and you…yes, you the person who is reading this. Yes, you.

DIGITAL INK: e-Books Reaching a Tipping Point

Speaker Admin — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 15:47:00 -0700

The electronic book was a focus of attention at BookExpo America, the publishing and book-selling industry’s annual trade show last week.

Much of the buzz was created by Kindle, Amazon’s electronic reader, which now accounts for 6% of the company's overall book sales, according to CEO Jeff Bezos.

E-books are no longer a fad. Nearly all publishers say their sales of e-books are growing exponentially. For example, Simon & Schuster said its sales of e-books will more than double this year, after growing 40% in 2007. It says it will convert an additional 5,000 titles to electronic format this year, making available many books on its backlist of consistent sellers.

Amazon says it does not expect e-books to replace bound paper versions just yet. In fact, Kindle users are buying more physical books, not simply switching to e-books. Amazon says that, after buying a Kindle, customers purchase just as many physical books and 2.5 times as many books overall, or 3 e-books for every 2 physical copies. Some publishing executives dispute that claim, saying that there is almost a 1-to-1 cannibalization of physical books.

Despite their complaints, e-readers are paradoxically being used within the publishing industry itself. Many publishers equip their sales force with e-book readers, so that they don't have to lug around preview editions. And editors at many large publishing houses use the device to read manuscripts sent in by literary agents.

Business Values - Corporate Ethics and Motivation at Work

noreply@blogger.com (Dr Patrick Dixon) — Fri, 30 May 2008 12:08:04 -0700

Business Values: Ultimate Test “A well run business must have high and consistent standards of ethics” Richard Branson Virgin Airways “Defining the purpose of the corporation as exclusively...

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